Bab el-Mandeb News: Why Yemen’s Southern Forces Pulled Back

Yemen’s Southern Armed Forces have announced the withdrawal of their units from Dhubab Airport and the wider Bab el-Mandeb area west of Taiz Governorate, abandoning coast overlooking the strait which government-aligned forces had retaken from the Ansarullah movement, widely known as the Houthis, only weeks earlier. The statement, issued on November 15, called the move a redeployment backed by the Saudi-led coalition and based on “the priority of securing the capital, Aden, and the neighbouring governorates”, avoiding the word withdrawal altogether. It gave no figures for the troops involved and did not say whether every position in the area had been emptied. The decision highlights how far the Ansarullah advance on Aden has reshaped the southern war, with the defence of the government’s seat now taking clear precedence over one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints.

The area has changed hands twice since late summer, with Ansarullah forces having opened a broad offensive on September 3 which took the port of Mokha on September 10. Its fighters entered Dhubab the following day, when government troops also abandoned Perim Island, known locally as Mayun, without a fight. Government forces responded with what they call Operation Dawn of Yemen on October 5 and reported recapturing both Dhubab and Mokha that month, although control of Perim has remained disputed since. The Southern Armed Forces stated that operations to break the siege of Taiz would continue. The government’s own forces welcomed the redeployment as protecting Aden and the southern governorates, while insisting that liberating Bab el-Mandeb and the western coast remained “an inherent right” of their units.

The strait is between 26 and 32 kilometres wide at its narrowest point, with Perim splitting it into a shallow eastern channel of about three kilometres along the Yemeni shore and a western channel of about 25 kilometres where large ships sail in two traffic lanes. That places the main shipping route well within reach of anti-ship missiles and drones launched from Dhubab and the surrounding hills, in a waterway where traffic was already considerably depressed, with about 26 ships a day passing in the first week of November, roughly a third of the 2023 level. Control of the Yemeni shore of the Bab el-Mandeb gives Ansarullah significantly greater leverage over trade between Asia and Europe at a time when Iran continues to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf oil producers are thus under pressure on both of their principal sea routes as the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran enters its ninth month.

The redeployment follows weeks of Houthi pressure on the approaches to Aden, with Ansarullah fighters having come within about 80 kilometres of the city on November 2. Government officials stated on November 13 that their forces had been ordered to build fortifications west and north of Aden, as our front line map shows. Taiz remains besieged, with fighting around the city having passed its 61st consecutive day on November 11, and it hosts about half of the 300,000 people displaced across Yemen by the latest fighting. The movement has meanwhile continued its attacks on Saudi Arabia, with the Saudi-led coalition stating that two ballistic missiles fired towards Riyadh and three drones over the Eastern Province were intercepted early on November 15, with no damage reported.