Egypt’s Air Force in Saudi Arabia: Why Israel Is Worried

Egypt has 54 Dassault Rafales on order or in service. It became the French fighter’s first export customer with an order for 24 jets in 2015 and added 30 more in a second contract in 2021, and the air force expects all 54 in service by the end of 2026, The Defense Post reported.

In early September the French daily La Tribune reported that Cairo had sent Dassault a request for 24 more. If it becomes a contract, Egypt’s fleet would reach 78 Rafales, more than any export customer has taken, Defence Security Asia noted. Reports from the El Alamein air show suggest the new jets would be built to the F4 standard, which improves networked combat and data sharing. Dassault has declined to comment, and no contract has been announced.

The Rafale is moving from a specialist aircraft inside a mixed fleet to the leading candidate to replace part of Egypt’s ageing American F-16s, long the backbone of its air force. For Egypt the attraction is independence: the F-16s came with restrictions on the weapons Egypt could use, while the Rafale brings French missiles such as the MICA and the long-range Meteor.

Israel can live with Egypt buying planes. What it cannot ignore is when the Black Panthers resurfaced: during a Saudi request for military support, which suggests these squadrons could help defend the kingdom’s skies.

The obvious objection is that Saudi Arabia has one of the strongest air forces in the Middle East, with Eurofighter Typhoons and F-15s. It does not need Egypt’s Rafales. It does. Saudi Arabia is at war on three fronts: the Houthis in Yemen, Iran-aligned militias in Iraq and Iran itself. A kingdom in that position needs every soldier, every aircraft, every air-defence battery and every armoured vehicle it can get. Egyptian squadrons over Saudi Arabia would fly against real drones and real missiles, and possibly against enemy fighters.

That is the experience Israel does not want Egypt to have. An exercise and a war are different things. In an exercise, you rehearse lessons you have already learned, or that the friendly air force you train with learned before you. A war is full of surprises, and surprises teach. Israel regards itself as the most battle-tested military in the region precisely because of the wars it keeps fighting. Egyptian pilots who gain that kind of experience without Egypt fighting a war of its own, and who learn where their own mistakes lie, would close a gap Israel has counted on for decades.

Announcing a new squadron at this moment also says Egypt is ready for sustained air operations in Saudi Arabia, and that the squadron will be built up to strength.

Then there is what the public has not seen. The Rafale is only what Egypt shows. If MiG-21s could beat American Skyhawks in 1973, Israeli planners have to ask what Egyptian pilots will do with Rafales, and with whatever Egypt has not shown.

Some critics claim Egypt is going to Saudi Arabia to protect its Saudi deposits and investments. The money is moving the other way. Since Sisi said Egypt would support Saudi Arabia, about $2.1 billion has left the Egyptian economy, and the pound has hit record lows, touching 55.37 to the dollar. On 22 October alone the pound fell 1.7 percent, according to Trading Economics. This website has tracked what Cairo’s pledge is costing it.

Rising oil prices and a strong dollar play a part. The main reason is that markets now treat Egypt as a party to the war. The pound fell when the Iran war began in February, but not like this. The US embassy in Cairo has not even warned its citizens, and still the market prices Egypt in. Egypt is paying for a decision it has not yet carried out: no Egyptian unit has reached Saudi Arabia.

The harder question is not how Egypt gets in but when it gets out. Sisi has said repeatedly that the mission is defensive and will not include attacking Yemen, Middle East Eye reported. Defensive or not, Egypt will be part of this war. And once it commits, it cannot back out. Declining to send troops is one thing; withdrawing them is another. Egypt would stay until the war ends, and would fight a second, economic battle for as long as it lasts.

Everything points to a long war. On 21 October the US State Department ordered non-emergency staff and their families to leave Saudi Arabia. The New York Times has reported that the order followed intelligence that Iran was planning to assassinate American diplomats outside the United States, and that Washington fears Revolutionary Guard operatives may be inside the US itself. A memo from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that “the lethal plotting efforts by the Iranians against U.S. citizens have reached advanced stages,” NBC News reported.

Iran knows that assassinations and terrorism are its main weapons now. The Americans have learned from the start of the war and no longer park major military assets in the Gulf, so Iran struggles to inflict heavy losses on US forces directly. It is rearming instead. The Wall Street Journal has reported that Iran is again producing ballistic missiles and drones in its underground “missile cities” beneath the mountains, as Asharq Al-Awsat summarised, with factories working around the clock. China supplies missile components and propellant; Russia supplies drone components. Its missiles and drones can reach 2,000 kilometres or more, and the missiles carry warheads of 500 to 1,000 kilograms.

Israel, meanwhile, is escalating in the occupied West Bank. Its aim is to push Palestinians out, and if that succeeds the next target is Gaza, whose people Israel would push towards Sinai. Retired US Army Colonel Douglas Macgregor has warned that once Egypt moves to support Saudi Arabia, Israel will feel free to slaughter Palestinians because nothing will deter it. Egypt must be ready for all of it.

Egypt is at peace with Israel. Israel should be watching Hezbollah, the militias in Iraq, armed groups in Syria, or even Jordan’s army, which has a direct stake in what happens in the West Bank. Instead it watches Egypt. One pilot’s patch reminded it of the Black Panthers and of MiG-21s bringing down American-made Skyhawks. Israeli media treat every Egyptian signal the same way: a tunnel in a mountain, an Egyptian television series, now a squadron badge. A country only draws that attention when its army is strong.

Egypt has said it will not fight the Houthis or attack Yemen. Its mission in Saudi Arabia is defensive. But its Foreign Ministry has changed its language. Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea, the ministry says, are an extension of Egypt’s national security; the crisis has cost the Suez Canal heavily, and Egypt is among the countries most harmed. It also holds that Red Sea security is the exclusive responsibility of the states on its shores.

The message to the Houthis is plain: Egypt is not coming for you, but do not close Bab el-Mandeb, or you will drag Egypt into the war. In the past Cairo watched the strait close and reopen without acting. Now the Egyptian army is about to stand in Saudi Arabia, on the Houthis’ border, and Cairo’s statements have changed with it.

The Iran-backed Houthis have attacked Saudi Arabia with growing force since the war in Yemen reignited in July. A strike on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport on 10 October killed at least 12 people. On 17 October Sisi asked parliament to authorise the armed forces to help defend Saudi Arabia if Riyadh asks, a step that needs a two-thirds majority under Article 152 of Egypt’s constitution. Parliament postponed its vote to 26 October. On 21 October Sisi said Egypt’s role is to defend Saudi land and borders, not to attack Yemen; we examined that limit in Will Egypt Attack Yemen?. Egypt’s contribution would centre on air defence and air power: mobile short-range systems on the ground, and Rafale squadrons in the air.