Armed group profile · SD Strength Index
al-Shabaab: military strength 2026
How strong is al-Shabaab in 2026?
Strong for an insurgency, weak as an army. Al-Shabaab fights as light infantry and has no heavy weapons, but it has been at war for more than 18 years and its command still holds together. On the Silent Dossier index it leads the insurgencies, ahead of the jihadist groups in Nigeria and Mali, and sits behind Haftar's Libyan National Army among armed groups overall.
In February 2025 it opened an offensive in the Shabelle region, retook Adan Yabaal, Moqokori and other towns, and in March reached Elasha Biyaha, about 10 km from Mogadishu. Somali forces and the African Union mission, backed by Ethiopian, Turkish and US air power, held the line. Fighting in 2026 has been a grinding exchange with no decisive gains.
How many fighters does al-Shabaab have?
Silent Dossier estimates about 9,000, inside a range of 5,000 to 12,000 that includes the Amniyat security wing. No count has been published for 2026.
The full time core is smaller. Silent Dossier estimates the Jabhat, its army, and the Amniyat together at 3,000 to 6,000 fighters. Around them are clan levies, many of them forced, and local recruits from the districts the group holds, in numbers nobody has counted. Field units mix the two.
Command is central. An emir and a shura council sit at the top, the Amniyat runs intelligence and internal discipline, and the group has its own courts and tax collectors. That structure let it run coordinated offensives on several fronts in 2025.
What weapons does al-Shabaab use?
Small arms, RPGs and heavy machine guns on pickup trucks do most of the work, along with army and African Union vehicles it has captured. Mortars from 60 to 120mm are fired routinely at bases and at the area around Mogadishu's airport. Car bombs and roadside bombs are its main tools for breaking into bases and striking cities. Its weapons are smuggled in or taken from its enemies.
Its reach is short. Silent Dossier puts its strike range at about 10 km, the distance of mortars, small rockets and drones. Suicide bombers and raids take its attacks further. Modified commercial quadcopters scout and drop small munitions. Machine guns and antiaircraft guns on trucks are its only air defence, though a Ugandan Mi-24 and a Burundian Bell 412 were lost during the 2025 offensive, in circumstances that remain partly unconfirmed.
Who backs al-Shabaab?
Al-Shabaab is al-Qaeda's affiliate in Somalia, but it funds itself. It taxes and extorts trade, ports, farms and businesses, raising an estimated $100m to $200m a year between 2023 and 2025.
Its newer link is with Yemen's Houthis. More than 100 of its fighters were reported in August 2026 to have trained with the Houthis in Yemen, including in drone assembly, and Houthi engineers are reported to have taught drone modification in Jilib. No transfer of advanced Houthi missiles has been confirmed.
Where does al-Shabaab control territory?
Across much of rural southern and central Somalia, including the Jubba valley and Jilib, parts of Middle and Lower Shabelle, Hiraan and Galgaduud. It also operates in Puntland's Cal Madow mountains and near the Kenyan border.
Whether that ground is growing is disputed. In September 2026 the commander of the African Union mission said al-Shabaab had taken no new territory since March 2025, but a seizure of ground in central Somalia was reported in August 2026. In March 2026, AU and Somali forces said they killed more than 40 fighters while repelling an attempt to retake Mubarak, near Mogadishu.
What is changing in the war against al-Shabaab?
The money behind its opponents. In July 2026 the United States said it would stop funding, at the end of the year, the UN support office that covers about 85 per cent of the AU mission's support. The EU has put in a €75m stopgap. Air strikes continue: US forces had carried out at least 88 by October 2026, and on 19 and 20 October US and then UAE aircraft struck al-Shabaab in Cal Madow, the UAE's first strike in nearly a year.
Key figures
| Fighters | 5,000–12k | C |
| Full-time trained core | 3,000–6,000 | C |
| Ballistic missiles | 0 | B |
| Cruise and anti-ship missiles | 0 | B |
| Longest strike range (km) | 5–20 | C |
| Tanks | 0 | B |
| Aircraft | 0 | B |
A confirmed B strong estimate C estimated range
Main weapons
| Small arms, RPGs, heavy machine guns on technicals | — | B |
| Mortars 60-120 mm | — | B |
| VBIEDs and IEDs | — | A |
| Commercial quadcopters (modified) | — | C |
Assessment
| Firepower | 2/5 | |
| Cohesion and command | 4/5 | |
| Outside support | 2/5 | |
| Combat experience | 5/5 | |
| Professionalism | 3/5 |
Backers. al-Qaeda
Ground. It controls much of rural southern and central Somalia, including the Jubba valley around Jilib and parts of Middle and Lower Shabelle, Hiraan and Galgaduud. It is also present in Puntland's Cal Madow mountains and along the Kenyan border.
Professional or irregular. An emir and shura command the group centrally, backed by a disciplined Amniyat intelligence wing, its own courts and taxation. An estimated 3,000 to 6,000 permanent fighters form the core of a force of roughly 5,000 to 12,000. Field units mix trained cadre with coerced local recruits.
What changed in 2026
Questions readers ask
How many fighters does al-Shabaab have?
Silent Dossier estimates about 9,000, within a range of 5,000 to 12,000. The full time core is put at 3,000 to 6,000, and the rest are clan levies and local recruits.
Is al-Shabaab part of al-Qaeda?
Yes. It is al-Qaeda's affiliate in Somalia, though it raises its own money and runs its own command.
How does al-Shabaab make money?
Through taxation and extortion of trade, ports, farms and businesses in the areas it reaches. Estimates put the total at $100m to $200m a year between 2023 and 2025.
Does al-Shabaab have drones?
Yes, modified commercial quadcopters used for scouting and dropping small munitions. More than 100 fighters were reported in 2026 to have trained with the Houthis in Yemen, including in drone assembly. No count of its drones exists.
How close did al-Shabaab get to Mogadishu?
In March 2025 its fighters reached Elasha Biyaha, about 10 km from the capital, during the Shabelle offensive. Somali and African Union forces with foreign air support stopped the advance.