Fano: military strength 2026

How strong is Fano in 2026?

Fano is everywhere in rural Amhara and strong almost nowhere. It operates across Gojjam, Gondar, Wollo and North Shewa and increasingly in western Oromia, and it claims 80 per cent of Amhara. That is the group's claim. The federal army holds the main towns and highways, and Fano contests the roads around them.

Its pattern since the insurgency began in April 2023 is the town raid. In February 2026, after federal units moved to the Tigray border, Fano entered Debre Tabor and pulled out under drone strikes, then captured Wereta on 15 February. Average monthly attacks from March to May rose more than 50 per cent over the previous three months. On the Silent Dossier index Fano sits behind Hamas and well behind its ally, the Tigray Defense Forces.

How much of Fano is professional?

Very little. Most fighters are rural militia who fight part time, organised by zone. The harder core is made up of Amhara Special Forces members and regional police who defected after 2023, but no figure exists for it.

The headcount is just as uncertain. The 15,000 to 20,000 figure comes from the movement and press estimates. The regional government says 33,000 fighters have laid down arms, which Fano disputes, and which would imply a much larger pool of occasional fighters. Claims of hundreds of thousands are unsourced.

Unity is newer than it looks. Rival factions merged into the Amhara Fano National Movement in January 2026 under Zemene Kassie, who claimed on 16 August that the Shewa, Wollo, Gondar and Wollega forces answer to one command. Local commanders still act on their own, and splits persist, including the defection of Masresha Setie in December 2025.

What weapons does Fano have?

Small arms, machine guns and light support weapons, most of them captured from federal and regional forces or carried over by defectors. Fano has no aircraft and no ballistic or cruise missiles. There is no data on any heavy weapons it may have captured, and no drones flown by Fano have been documented.

That leaves it exposed. Federal drones have struck Amhara more than 100 times since 2023, and drone strikes and counteroffensives have pushed Fano out of almost every town it has seized. The strikes are not precise: one in January 2026 killed about 40 militia fighting for the government by mistake.

What is Fano's alliance with the TPLF?

In September 2026 the Amhara Fano National Movement joined the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, a coalition of seven groups with the TPLF and the Oromo Liberation Army. The turn was sharp. In August the OLA had fought alongside government forces against Fano for the first time.

Joint operations with Tigrayan forces began on 23 September. Fano and the TDF entered Sekota and pushed toward Woldia, were stopped near Kobo, and lost Sekota to the federal army on 27 September. The alliance claimed drone strikes on Harar Meda, Kombolcha and Addis Ababa from 27 September to 1 October, but which member carried them out is unclear. On 3 October federal troops took Mekelle, the capital of Fano's new partner.

Who backs Fano and how is it funded?

Ethiopia says Eritrea supports Fano, and Eritrea denies it. The TPLF has been an ally since September. Money comes from taxes and levies in rural areas Fano controls, from the diaspora and from seized government stocks.

Fano has also done political damage. It declared the 1 June 2026 election illegitimate, and the electoral board cancelled voting in at least 8 of Amhara's 138 constituencies.