Hamas: military strength 2026

How strong is Hamas in 2026?

Much weaker than in October 2023, though still armed and still in control of part of Gaza. Two years of war with Israel destroyed most of the Qassam Brigades' rockets and production lines and killed most of its senior commanders. Its battalion structure did not survive. Before the war it had about 24 battalions and an elite unit, the Nukhba. Since the ceasefire of 10 October 2025 it has fought as a decentralised guerrilla force.

On the Silent Dossier index Hamas sits near the bottom of the armed groups, behind Libya's Tripoli government forces and ahead only of Ethiopia's Fano militias. Few groups have more combat experience. Its firepower and outside support rate among the weakest on the index.

How many fighters does Hamas have?

Every figure available is an Israeli estimate. Israel is Hamas's adversary in this war, and Hamas publishes no numbers of its own. The estimates also count different things. Israeli assessments in late 2025 put the force at 15,000 to 25,000. Israeli officials put the Qassam Brigades at about 27,000 in May 2026. In October 2026 the Israeli military's estimate rose to 30,000 to 40,000 operatives, a figure for the whole organisation rather than the armed wing alone.

The professional share is smaller. An Israeli military official said in late 2025 that 10,000 to 20,000 were trained fighters. Many of the rest are recent recruits with far less training than the prewar cadre, an irregular layer whose size nobody outside Hamas knows.

What weapons does Hamas have left?

Mostly light ones. Israel estimates the rocket stock at anywhere from dozens to several hundred, against a prewar arsenal commonly put in the low tens of thousands, and the Israeli military says about 90 per cent of the stock and production capacity was destroyed. Most surviving rockets are short range. Hamas fired rockets of 100 km or more in 2023 and 2024, and nobody knows whether any of those survive.

Beyond rockets, the inventory is a guerrilla one: small arms, Yassin-105 and other antitank launchers, mortars, roadside bombs and small commercial drones. Hamas has no tanks, no aircraft and no air defence.

Israel says Hamas has repaired tunnels and regained access to hidden weapons caches. That claim has not been independently confirmed. On 8 September 2026 Israeli strikes hit three weapons depots belonging to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, along with a rocket launch pit.

Who backs Hamas?

Iran funded and trained the movement before the war, and its capacity to do so shrank further after its own war with Israel and the United States in 2026. Qatar and Turkey host Hamas's political leaders but do not supply it with weapons. With no visible resupply from outside, the group now relies mainly on taxing goods and controlling aid in the areas it holds.

How much of Gaza does Hamas control?

Since the ceasefire Israel has held the ground east of what is called the Yellow Line and Hamas the rest, roughly 40 to 47 per cent of the Strip depending on the date. In September 2026 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel controlled 60 per cent. No international stabilisation force or Palestinian police force has deployed, and Hamas still enforces its own control west of the line. It fought the Doghmush clan in October 2025.

The ceasefire has not ended the violence. There have been sporadic clashes along the line, including roadside bombs against Israeli armour, alongside Israeli targeted strikes. About 850 Palestinians had been killed in Israeli strikes between the ceasefire and May 2026, by reported counts. Israel killed two successive Qassam commanders that month, Izz al-Din al-Haddad on 15 May and Mohammed Odeh on 26 May, and Hamas confirmed both deaths. Mohammed Sinwar had been killed a year earlier. Who leads the armed wing now has not been confirmed.

Will Hamas disarm?

Not so far. In March 2026 mediators in Cairo gave Hamas a written plan for phased disarmament, with weapons handed over region by region from the south. Hamas was reported to be open to storing or giving up heavy weapons but not light arms, which are most of what it has left.

A Board of Peace announced by President Donald Trump in January 2026 was meant to oversee demilitarisation and Israeli withdrawal and to bring in an international force. Its work largely stopped once the Iran war began on 28 February. By late October the disarmament talks had stalled and Indonesia's pledge of troops for the international force was on hold.