Armed group profile · SD Strength Index
M23: military strength 2026
How strong is M23 in 2026?
M23 now fights as the Alliance Fleuve Congo, or AFC/M23, and it behaves more like a conventional army than a rebel band. It holds Goma and Bukavu, the capitals of North and South Kivu, and runs a parallel administration there and in the Rubaya mining area. Command is central, and its trained cadre fights in mixed battalions with Rwandan soldiers.
On the index it sits behind the Houthis and ahead of Russia's Africa Corps and Hezbollah. Its backing puts it there: few armed groups anywhere have a neighbouring army's artillery, air defence and GPS jamming working beside them in the field.
How many fighters does M23 have?
Silent Dossier estimates about 20,000, within a range of 10,000 to 30,000. The top of that range counts everyone on the books: recruits, former Congolese soldiers and police, and local defence units absorbed since 2025. Combat strength is lower.
The professional core, the original M23 cadre plus recruits who have finished training, is put at 6,000 to 10,000. The other 10,000 to 20,000 are newer and less trained, and rapid recruitment has thinned quality at the edges.
None of those figures includes Rwanda's own troops. Estimates in July 2026 put 14,000 to 18,000 Rwandan soldiers in eastern Congo, close to M23's own size. Rwanda denies they are there.
What weapons does M23 have?
It has no aircraft and no ballistic or cruise missiles. Its punch is artillery: BM-21 type rocket launchers, used in the Uvira offensive, and mortars firing GPS guided rounds, with Rwandan crews operating much of it. When Goma and Bukavu fell in 2025 it also took Congolese armour, heavy weapons and stocks. Nobody has published a count. Grad type rockets reach 20 to 40 km.
Drones arrived in 2026. M23 first used them against Congolese troops and Wazalendo militias in the South Kivu highlands in March. In April the Congolese army said it shot down two M23 fixed wing drones near Minembwe, and in October kamikaze drone strikes in Masisi and the Bijombo highlands reportedly forced government coalition units out of their positions. A Yiha III type has been reported. Drone attacks on the Kisangani airbase in January and February, up to 600 km away, were blamed on M23 but never verified. Rwandan short range air defence covers its ground against Congolese drones and aircraft.
What has M23 won since 2025?
With Rwandan support it took Goma in January 2025 and Bukavu a month later. It captured Uvira on 10 December 2025, days after the Washington Accords, then pulled out on 18 January 2026 under US pressure. Congolese, Burundian and militia forces have all lost to it.
Clashes went on in the South Kivu highlands and Masisi through 2026 while Doha framework talks continued, their ninth round held in Switzerland in April. US sanctions were reported in March. In October former president Joseph Kabila joined AFC/M23 in a political and military alliance.
Who backs M23 and how is it funded?
Rwanda is the backer that matters, with troops, artillery, drones and air defence. It denies any role. Uganda is alleged to have tolerated M23 and let it move through its territory, which Uganda also denies.
Money comes from the ground it holds. M23 taxes the mineral trade, charging $4 a kilo on coltan from Rubaya and $2 a kilo on cassiterite, and collects customs and local taxes across most of North Kivu and much of South Kivu.
Key figures
| Fighters | 10k–30k | C |
| Full-time trained core | 6,000–10k | C |
| Reservists and irregulars | 10k–20k | C |
| Ballistic missiles | 0 | B |
| Cruise and anti-ship missiles | 0 | B |
| Longest strike range (km) | 20–600 | C |
| Aircraft | 0 | B |
A confirmed B strong estimate C estimated range
Main weapons
| BM-21-type MRL | — | B |
| Mortars incl. GPS-guided rounds | — | B |
| Captured FARDC heavy weapons and stocks (Goma, Bukavu) | — | C |
| Kamikaze/loitering drones and fixed-wing drones (Yiha III-type reported) | — | C |
| SHORAD and GPS jamming (RDF) | — | C |
Assessment
| Firepower | 3/5 | |
| Cohesion and command | 4/5 | |
| Outside support | 5/5 | |
| Combat experience | 4/5 | |
| Professionalism | 4/5 |
Backers. Rwanda
Ground. It controls most of North Kivu, including Goma, Rutshuru, Masisi and Rubaya, and much of South Kivu, including Bukavu and Kamanyola. It withdrew from Uvira in January 2026.
Professional or irregular. A conventional, centrally commanded force with a trained cadre of an estimated 6,000 to 10,000, fighting alongside Rwandan troops in mixed battalions, which Rwanda denies. It runs a parallel administration in Goma, Bukavu and Rubaya. Rapid recruitment, including former army and police personnel, has diluted quality at the margins.
What changed in 2026
Questions readers ask
How many fighters does M23 have?
Silent Dossier estimates about 20,000, within a range of 10,000 to 30,000. About 6,000 to 10,000 are a trained core; the rest are recent recruits, former Congolese soldiers and police, and absorbed local defence units.
Does Rwanda support M23?
Yes, by every account except Rwanda's own. An estimated 14,000 to 18,000 Rwandan troops were in eastern Congo in July 2026, operating artillery, drones and air defence alongside M23. Rwanda denies it.
Does M23 have drones?
Yes. It began using armed drones against Congolese forces in March 2026 and used kamikaze drones in Masisi and the Bijombo highlands in October. The size of the fleet and who supplies it are unconfirmed.
What territory does M23 control?
Most of North Kivu, including Goma, Rutshuru, Masisi and the Rubaya mines, and much of South Kivu, including Bukavu and Kamanyola. It withdrew from Uvira in January 2026.
Is M23 stronger than the Congolese army?
In the east it has been since 2025, beating the army and its allies at Goma, Bukavu and Uvira. Much of that edge belongs to Rwanda, whose troops supply the heavy fire, air defence and jamming.