Egypt Is the Only Nation Whose Parliament Voted to Defend Saudi Arabia

Article 152 of Egypt’s 2014 constitution bars the president from declaring war or sending the armed forces on combat missions outside the country until he has consulted the National Defence Council and won the votes of two-thirds of the House of Representatives. The council, which Sisi chairs, pledged “all necessary and possible forms of support” to Saudi Arabia earlier this month.

The procedure has been used once before. In July 2020 the House authorised a deployment on Egypt’s “western front” in Libya as Turkish-backed forces advanced on Sirte; the advance stopped and the troops never crossed. When Egypt joined the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen in 2015, it sent warships to the Red Sea and no ground forces. Its last large ground deployment abroad was the 1991 Gulf War, when tens of thousands of Egyptian soldiers fought to liberate Kuwait.

This time the House met behind closed doors on 18, 19 and 26 October before voting. The 11-member bloc of the opposition Egyptian Social Democratic Party abstained, saying it had too little information.

Yes. A Saudi military analyst argued on the BBC that Egypt’s forces would not be needed, because Saudi Arabia operates more Patriot PAC-3 systems than any country except the United States, while Egypt’s Patriots are the older PAC-2. Batteries do not deploy themselves. If Egypt sends missiles and guns to Saudi Arabia, Egyptian soldiers go with them to operate them.

The vote says the same. Britain announced on 20 October that RAF Typhoons would fly defensive patrols over Saudi cities, and France began sending assets to protect the Red Sea port of Yanbu, Al Jazeera reported. Neither government needed a vote. Egypt’s parliament was asked to approve a combat mission abroad, and a combat mission means troops.

A regional official told AP that Egypt would deploy air-defence systems and aircraft. Sisi has said Egyptian forces will defend Saudi territory and borders and will not attack Yemen. On paper the deployment still waits for a Saudi request. The request has already been made; only its formal delivery remains.

Saudi Arabia has some of the best air defences in the world. Its weakness is distance. The Wall Street Journal reported on 12 October that Riyadh was struggling to cover the vast kingdom and was moving batteries to protect energy sites and palaces, according to the Times of Israel. The Journal put the Saudi interception rate against Houthi attacks at about 90 percent, better than the United States managed against Iran’s missiles. The Houthis know this, so they aim at sites that are not covered. Each hit gives them an explosion to film and broadcast.

The East-West pipeline shows the scale. It crosses the kingdom for about 1,200 kilometres with around a dozen pumping stations, and on 26 October the Houthis claimed to have hit three of them. Patriots alone cannot guard every station on a line that long, and the Houthis do not find their targets alone: Iran gives them the intelligence.

Egypt can fill the gaps. Its Amoun system, a locally built version of the Skyguard gun-and-missile system, and its Chaparral and Gepard units fire cheap ammunition that Egypt has in plenty. Spread across Saudi oil sites, ports and cities, they would let the Saudi military plan its own operations knowing the home front is covered.

The Shabwa massacre shows what gaps cost. On 19 October, Houthi ballistic missiles hit a training camp in Shabwa, in southern Yemen, just as four battalions began training. At least 75 people were killed and about 200 wounded, and the dead were buried in Shabwa days later. Officials said the camp had no air defences or early warning. Saudi trainers were among the dead. Each Saudi life lost pushes a Saudi-Houthi reconciliation further away.

The bill is real. Since Sisi said Egypt would support Saudi Arabia militarily, the pound has lost 6 to 7 percent and the stock market close to 8 percent, and about $2.2 billion of hot money left in a single week. The dollar touched a record 56.34 pounds on 26 October in CNBC’s market data. Days earlier, an economist on Amr Adib’s television show had said 55 was the limit.

Several Egyptian talk shows blame oil prices, US interest rates and global conditions. Those pressures exist, yet the Gulf war has run for nine months and the pound is falling now. Investors who bought Egyptian treasury bills were betting that Egypt would stay out of the war. Now they see the Egyptian army moving beyond its borders, and a defensive label makes no difference to them. They will keep selling until they can judge how long Egypt will stay in Saudi Arabia, and no one can yet say.

That disposes of a claim popular on social media, that Egypt is moving for a $5 billion Saudi deposit. Egypt is losing billions of dollars to stand with Saudi Arabia, and no deposit covers that. Silent Dossier set out what Cairo’s pledge is costing it before the vote.

Yes. For the first time, Egypt is handling a currency crisis correctly. Under Hosni Mubarak, the state defended a fixed rate by pouring reserves into the market. In the old joke about one chauffeur and three presidents, Nasser says turn left, Sadat says turn right and Mubarak says park the car and leave it. Propping up the pound was the parked car: nobody complained, and the reserves drained away.

Foreign analysts have been surprised that the government is not stepping in, and they approve. Central Bank Governor Hassan Abdalla said what would actually be concerning is “a fixed exchange rate despite changing conditions,” Egypt Independent reported on 23 October. The International Monetary Fund wants that flexibility kept. Its final review of Egypt’s $8 billion programme, which would release about $2.3 billion together with a climate facility, is due before the programme expires on 15 December, the Rio Times noted. Burning reserves to hold the pound would put that money at risk. Reserves kept intact, a record $57.2 billion at the end of August, let Egypt buy fuel and strategic goods at world prices instead of fighting the market.

Look at what Egypt is doing. A detachment of its best fighters, Rafales, is in the United Arab Emirates and has not come home. It is preparing air defences and troops for Saudi Arabia. An Israeli military news site reports that Egypt is preparing airfields toward the Libyan border to receive Rafales. Cairo backs the Sudanese army. Israel tracks every detail, down to the revival of Egypt’s “Black Panthers” fighter squadron, which Silent Dossier covered in Egypt’s air force in Saudi Arabia. A small country turned inward on a weak economy does none of this.

The Mediterranean tells the same story. On 20 October, the eastern Libyan parliament aligned with Khalifa Haftar ratified the 2019 maritime memorandum with Turkey, which Cairo says cuts into Egypt’s maritime zone. Egypt called it “null and void”. Turkey’s defence minister then offered a delimitation deal with Egypt, and Turkey’s land forces commander has arrived in Cairo for talks. Egypt’s foreign minister was in Istanbul with his Turkish counterpart days later, and the two armies may soon defend Saudi Arabia side by side. Egypt has not been outplayed. It saw this coming, and the outcome is in its hands.