Israel Election Results: Who Won the Exit Polls?

Israel’s Exit Polls Split: Eisenkot Claims Victory, Netanyahu’s Bloc Stays in Reach

Israel’s exit polls put Eisenkot’s bloc at 52 or 53 seats against Netanyahu’s 50, short of 61. What each side said and why the Arab parties decide it.

Illustration: Israel’s exit polls left neither bloc at the 61 seats needed to govern.AI-generated illustration (Google Gemini) for Silent Dossier

Lucas VaneDirector and Chief EditorOctober 27, 20264 min read

In this article

Context

Gadi Eisenkot wrote on X on Tuesday night, “I will immediately act to implement the people’s decision,” after Israeli exit polls put his opposition bloc ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu’s, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency reported. Channels 12, 11 and 13 gave Eisenkot’s bloc 52 or 53 seats, NBC News reported, and Channel 14 gave Netanyahu’s bloc 60.

In the Kan exit poll Likud is the largest party with 25 seats to 21 for Eisenkot’s Yashar, according to JTA. The exit polls are not official results, and the Central Elections Committee is due to report by 4 November, NBC News noted.

Our pre-vote piece on what the election means for Iran and Gaza set out the stakes.

Key takeaways

NBC News listed Netanyahu’s bloc at 50 seats in three exit polls and Eisenkot’s at 52 or 53. Eisenkot told NBC News his victory holds only “if these are the final results.” JTA reported that both blocs have ruled out coalitions with the Arab parties, and that Ra’am would lift Eisenkot only to 60.

Analysis

What the exit polls showed

NBC News tracked the projections as they came in: Channel 12 had Netanyahu’s bloc on 50 seats and Eisenkot’s on 52, Channels 11 and 13 had 50 against 53, and Channel 14 had 60 against 43.

JTA gave Kan’s party figures: Likud 25, Yashar 21, B’Yachad (the Bennett and Lapid list) 14, the Democrats 10, the Joint List 10, Yisrael Beytenu 8, Ra’am 7, and 6 each for Otzma Yehudit, United Torah Judaism, Shas and the Religious Zionist Party.

The Soufan Center said in its 27 October IntelBrief that the mandate goes to “the lawmaker most likely to assemble a coalition capable of controlling at least 61 Knesset seats.”

What Eisenkot and Netanyahu said

After voting in Herzliya, Eisenkot said, “We are setting Israel on a new path,” JTA reported. At 5:06 PM Eastern, NBC News recorded him saying, “The initial exit poll results indicate a complete lack of confidence in Netanyahu.” In the same statement he said, “If these are the final results, this is a victory for Israel’s mainstream Zionist majority.”

After voting at a school in Jerusalem he said, “We cannot leave this battle in the hands of the left and the Arab parties,” JTA reported. At 11:01 AM Eastern, NBC News quoted him writing, “Muslim Brotherhood supporters are storming polling stations and stealing the election.” In the same live blog Bezalel Smotrich said that “voter turnout in the Arab sector has reached a 53-year high.”

We found no Netanyahu statement on the exit polls themselves in the reporting available at the time of writing.

Analysis

Why the Arab parties decide it

JTA reported that the Joint List said it could support a government led by someone other than Netanyahu from outside the coalition, with conditions that would be hard for Eisenkot to accept. JTA added that Ra’am, which has joined an Israeli coalition before, would bring Eisenkot’s bloc to 60 seats if included, one short of a majority.

Both major blocs have ruled out coalitions with either Arab party, JTA said. Adalah, a legal centre for Arab citizens of Israel, filed a complaint with the Central Elections Committee over statements by government officials about Arab voters, according to the same report.

Analysis

What analysts expected

Atlantic Council analyst Thomas Warrick wrote in an Atlantic Council dispatch on 26 October that “Gridlock is highly likely.” He added that bargaining after the vote could create “a chance for political compromise and regional diplomacy.”

The Soufan Center’s IntelBrief said inconclusive results could necessitate “another election in early 2027.”

Analysis

How does Israel’s coalition system work?

The Soufan Center said the mandate to form a government goes to “the lawmaker most likely to assemble a coalition capable of controlling at least 61 Knesset seats.” In the Kan poll Likud leads with 25 seats, JTA reported, while Eisenkot’s bloc leads on the combined count.

What to watch

Official results are due by 4 November, NBC News said. The first marker is whether the final count keeps NBC News’s 50 against 52 or 53 gap or moves toward Channel 14’s 60.

The second is whether Ra’am or the Joint List change the conditions JTA described, or either bloc drops its refusal. The third is which leader receives the mandate, the test the Soufan Center describes.