What Is at Stake in Israel’s Election for Iran and Gaza?

Israelis voted on Tuesday in an election that Donald Trump asked them to settle for Benjamin Netanyahu, that Netanyahu has framed around Iran, and that Hamas told mediators it is waiting on. Former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, the main challenger, has promised to end Hamas rule in Gaza within 18 months. The far-right minister Itamar Ben-Gvir says Netanyahu is planning a coalition without him.

The Soufan Center wrote on election day of “a strong possibility that the election results will be inconclusive.” This piece sets the final week’s statements side by side. Silent Dossier covered the Iran side of the same campaign earlier in the week.

Trump endorsed Netanyahu in a message on Sunday that repeated one from the week before, and asked voters to “finish the job.” Netanyahu had already ordered the military and Mossad to topple Iran’s regime. Eisenkot answered with Trump’s own Gaza plan. Ben-Gvir and Likud contradict each other on what Netanyahu promised, and sources close to Netanyahu told Haaretz a fraud campaign was discussed in case he loses.

On Sunday 25 October Trump wrote to Israelis: “Vote for Bibi Netanyahu for Prime Minister, we have to finish the job that we started!” The message added: “When you go to the Polls please remember that Bibi has been an outstanding Warrior Prime Minister!” World Israel News called it his second endorsement in just over a week. Netanyahu thanked him and wrote: “Together, we will finish the job!”

Netanyahu had set out the job on Wednesday 21 October. Speaking at an IDF officers’ graduation ceremony, he said, in Ynet’s report: “There is only one way to eliminate this threat once and for all: to topple the regime in Iran.” He added: “That is my directive to the IDF, the Mossad and the security agencies.” On 25 October, at an Arrow missile battery, The Times of Israel recorded him saying: “We have intelligence signs that Iran and its proxies could challenge us with attacks in order to disrupt the elections.” He told Tehran: “Don’t test us.”

Eisenkot told TIME, in an interview published on 25 October: “Netanyahu is unwilling to show the courage needed to end the war from a position of strength.” On Hamas he laid out two options: “the 20 points of President Trump, or to use force.” He went on: “I prefer the diplomatic option,” and added, “I believe I can do it. But if not, I know how to dismantle Hamas with force.” TIME reported that he rules out joining a unity government with Netanyahu.

Ben-Gvir is arguing against exactly that arrangement. He told The Jerusalem Post in an interview dated 23 October, as the paper reported: “Netanyahu wants a unity government with Eisenkot and various other figures.” He added: “It would harm Israel.” His demand was: “Netanyahu needs to stand with me on the Right and pursue a full, full right-wing government.” The Post reported that Likud denied his claim that Netanyahu had promised European officials he would exclude him from the next coalition.

On election day the Post reported, citing The Washington Post, that Netanyahu had privately told US officials that Eisenkot would be the best partner if fighting with Iran resumes. A Likud official told The Washington Post: “Eisenkot has shown he lacks the backbone and the determination that Netanyahu has, and I think Trump understands that.” The same official said: “What Trump wants is a stable and reliable Israeli government that can be formed as soon as possible after the election.” Ben-Gvir’s reply, in the same report: “Instead of bringing votes from Eisenkot, they are trying to lower me below the threshold.”

Hamas spoke through two unnamed sources to Asharq Al-Awsat. Its leadership sent mediators and the Board of Peace a message expressing hope “that Trump’s plan and a roadmap agreed upon months ago in Cairo would move forward after the election.” The paper reported that Israel has not withdrawn from the positions it holds in Gaza since the ceasefire was announced in October 2025, and that its daily strikes have killed more than 1,600 Palestinians.

Trump asked for a vote to “finish the job.” Four days earlier Netanyahu had named the job as toppling the regime in Iran. Eisenkot’s reply to Trump’s endorsement was to cite Trump’s own plan, “the 20 points,” before force.

On the right, Ben-Gvir wants a “full, full right-wing government” and says the prime minister’s office told Europeans the opposite. A Likud official answered through The Washington Post that Trump wants “a stable and reliable” government quickly.

Hamas tied its own timetable to the count, and the paper that carried its message named Netanyahu as the man it blames for obstructing agreements. Thomas Warrick of the Atlantic Council wrote on 26 October that there is “more reason to hope for a turnaround than many think” once campaigning ends. The Soufan Center is more cautious: even if Eisenkot’s party finishes first, the Israeli president “does not automatically task him with forming the government.”

Trump’s endorsement, the Iran order and the fraud discussions all came before the first ballot was counted. A close result will test each of them.

Exit polls follow the close of voting on Tuesday night. After that, four markers matter. Whether either bloc reaches 61 seats. Whether Ben-Gvir’s party clears the electoral threshold he spoke of. Whether Likud turns the fraud discussions into formal complaints, and whether Netanyahu adopts them. And whether Trump comments on the result in the language of his earlier posts.

Hamas told mediators it is waiting on the count. A coalition deal in Jerusalem and a decision on Gaza in Cairo are unlikely to come on Wednesday morning.