Why Did Netanyahu Order the IDF to Topple Iran’s Regime?

Benjamin Netanyahu told new Israeli officers on Wednesday that overthrowing the Iranian government is now his “directive to the IDF, the Mossad and the security branches.” On Thursday Donald Trump told reporters at the White House that the United States “may do it a little bit further,” and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that the conflict “will extend to its bases in the region.”

The statements follow the strike plans Silent Dossier traced in Will the US and Israel Strike Iran After the Midterms?, and they add a formal order from an Israeli prime minister, five days before Israelis vote. The Iran-US talks tracker keeps each side’s latest positions.

Netanyahu named the IDF and the Mossad on Wednesday 21 October, according to JNS. Trump left further strikes open on Thursday without a date, and Iran answered through the Guards, a negotiator’s adviser and a parliamentary chairman. The Soufan Center expects US escalation after the 3 November midterms, and says some experts see action sooner if attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz continue.

Netanyahu spoke at an IDF officers’ course graduation at the Bahad 1 training base in southern Israel, and JNS reported him saying: “There is only one way to remove this threat once and for all: overthrow the regime in Iran.” He added that Iran “is attempting once again to develop the bombs of death.” He also quoted Trump as having said “We are ready to finish the job,” with the United States acting only alongside Israel, JNS reported. That line is Netanyahu’s account of Trump, not Trump’s own words.

Asked about the midterms on Thursday, Trump said, in remarks carried by Fox News: “We’ve knocked the hell out of them. And we may do it a little bit further.” The same day he wrote on Truth Social that Iran “is doing everything they can to drive up the price of Oil prior to the U.S. Midterm Election.” On Wednesday, according to Iran International’s live coverage, he told NewsNation that talks with Tehran were continuing “to some extent” and that there would be an outcome “one way or the other.”

The Revolutionary Guards said, as quoted by AFP: “The US military must know that if this trend continues, the conflict will extend to its bases in the region.” They added: “This is a serious warning.” Tasnim reported that the Guards struck four ships in the Persian Gulf for alleged ship-to-ship oil transfers. The Guards’ navy said three vessels hit mines in the western Strait of Hormuz overnight, Iran International reported. Both accounts are Iranian claims.

Mehdi Mohammadi, an adviser to negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said, according to Foreign Policy: “The third war in two years means a threat to existence. Our strategy is ‘zero red lines.’” Mohammad-Saleh Jokar, who heads parliament’s Internal Affairs Committee, asked the authorities to permit “deterrent weapons, including nuclear weapons” if the United States attacks, Iran International reported.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi turned to France on Thursday. On X he wrote that Emmanuel Macron told Congress in 2018 “France won’t leave the JCPOA, because we signed it,” and now claims to have always opposed “any form of nuclear activity” in Iran. His closing line, as Press TV reproduced it, was: “Get your story straight, Mr. President.”

Netanyahu, per JNS, named the United States as his partner on Wednesday. Trump, in the Fox News remarks, answered a question about the midterms on Thursday and did not name Israel.

Foreign Policy reports that US officials told the New York Times on Wednesday that joint strikes on Iran are expected to resume after the midterms. The Soufan Center’s 20 October IntelBrief says the base case for regional and global leaders “is for U.S. escalation to wait until after the U.S. election.” The same brief says some experts expect action sooner if attacks on ships continue, and it counts a reported 23 such attacks since early October.

The Guards tied their warning to a “trend,” and Tasnim describes that trend as enforcement against ship-to-ship oil transfers. Trump’s Truth Social post says Iran is “doing everything they can to drive up the price of Oil” before the midterms.

Cole Bucy, a former CIA analyst and former National Security Council director for Iran, wrote in War on the Rocks on 21 October that Iran’s leaders “will maximize the pain for their enemies before their demise.” Mohammadi’s “zero red lines” and Jokar’s request about nuclear weapons come from inside that system.

The first marker is Tuesday 27 October, when Israelis vote in what Foreign Policy calls a high-stakes election for Likud. The second is 3 November, the date after which the Soufan Center expects US escalation.

The third is the Strait of Hormuz, where the Hormuz status tracker logs transits and where the Guards report mines and ship strikes. The fourth is whether Trump uses the phrase “finish the job” himself, which he did not in the remarks above.