Trump Says He Does Not Know Whom to Deal With in Iran, and Netanyahu Waves Off a Strike Before the Vote
Trump says he does not know whom to deal with in Iran, Netanyahu calls a pre-election strike ‘no good’ and Tehran vows to keep fighting and talking. Here is how the dates line up.
In this article
Context
Speaking on Wednesday in Bullhead City, Arizona, Donald Trump said of Iran’s leadership, “I might have gone too far. I don’t know who the hell to deal with.” The same day Benjamin Netanyahu told Israel’s Army Radio that a strike on Iran before Israel’s 27 October election “is not convenient for us, it’s no good.”
Iran’s Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the same day that Iran will keep fighting and negotiating at once. Israel votes on 27 October and the United States on 3 November, and each leader’s remarks this week were about the weeks around those dates.
Key takeaways
Trump has pledged no attack on Iran before the US midterms on 3 November, yet on Tuesday he promised the war would end “very soon.” Netanyahu has said he does not want a strike before his own election on 27 October. Israeli television reported that he pressed Trump to renew the fighting, and his office denied it. Iran says any talks need the approval of the Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, and that it will fire if ordered to.
What was said
At a rally in Wasilla, Alaska, on Tuesday 13 October, Fox News reported Trump saying the US has “had it” with Iran and telling the crowd, “Wait until you see what we do to Iran.” Alaska Public Media reported that he promised the war would end “very soon.”
According to the Jerusalem Post’s account of the Bullhead City rally, he said: “Their radar is gone. Their anti-aircraft is gone. Their leaders are gone.” He followed with the line about not knowing whom to deal with, and a second one: “They made me promise not to take out anymore, and I did.”
On 8 October Trump had written on Truth Social that the US “will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections,” as Silent Dossier reported at the time. Araghchi replied then that Tehran would respond “within a few days.”
On Wednesday Netanyahu gave two interviews. On Army Radio, in remarks carried by Reuters, he rejected rivals’ claims that he wants a confrontation before the vote and said Iran would blame him even if it fired missiles at Israel. In an interview with the Kan broadcaster, as logged by Fox News, he said of Iran’s government, “This regime must go.” Asked whether it could fall before 27 October, he answered, “No, I don’t think that’s realistic.”
Iran’s side spoke through two officials. Ghalibaf, in remarks reported by Newsquawk, said: “When we say we both fight and negotiate, we do not mean that we are waging an endless war or constant negotiation.” He added that Iran is “fighting until the enemy is forced to give in to the demands of our nation.” Vice President Mohammad Jafar Ghaempanah said on Wednesday, per the same Fox News log, “If the decision is to fire missiles, we will fire missiles on the orders of the commander-in-chief.” He added that talks with Washington need the approval of Iran’s top security body and of Mojtaba Khamenei.
Analysis
Why do the election dates matter for a strike on Iran?
Reuters recalled on Wednesday that the United States and Iran have been at war since 28 February, while Israel and Iran have not exchanged fire since June.
On Wednesday, Israel’s Channel 12 News reported, citing unnamed US and Israeli sources, that Netanyahu had urged Trump to renew the fighting before both votes. The report was relayed by the Times of Israel. Trump reportedly told him to “go ahead and prepare” but committed to nothing. The same report said Israeli security officials saw no change in Iran intelligence that would justify an operation in the next two to three weeks, and that Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir warned renewed fighting could lead to the election being postponed. Netanyahu’s office denied he sought a war before the vote.
On Army Radio Netanyahu called a strike before 27 October “no good.” Reuters added that he would not say whether one might come after the election.
Analysis
How the statements connect
Within a week Trump pledged no strikes before 3 November, told a rally to wait and see what the US does to Iran, and said the war would end “very soon.” On Wednesday he said he did not know whom to deal with. Ghaempanah’s answer, the same day, was that talks need Mojtaba Khamenei’s approval.
Fighting goes on at sea. On Wednesday UKMTO reported a container ship struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, and Singapore’s maritime authority said the GFS Pride sank after a fire. The Revolutionary Guards said a container ship hit a naval mine. Reuters put Brent crude at $106.06 a barrel.
Paul Pillar of Georgetown University wrote on 15 October for the Quincy Institute that “the most feasible way out of the war is a skeletal ceasefire agreement that defers most substantive negotiations.”
What to watch
Israel votes on 27 October and the US on 3 November. Trump’s Truth Social pledge covers only the period before the midterms.
Watch for the reply Araghchi promised on 8 October and who signs it. Watch whether ships keep being hit in the Strait of Hormuz. A named Iranian negotiator with Khamenei’s authority would answer Trump’s complaint; until one appears, the pledges end on 3 November.
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