Will the US and Israel Strike Iran After the Midterms?

On Wednesday evening President Donald Trump told reporters that the United States is “not negotiating” with Iran and that “something one way or the other” will happen “fairly soon.” The remark followed a New York Times report that the US and Israeli militaries have drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the 3 November midterm elections. Within hours Iran’s president, its foreign minister and its military each answered, and Israel’s prime minister and defence minister added their own lines.

Three dates frame the exchange: Israel’s general election on 27 October, America’s midterms on 3 November, and Iran’s demand that the US lift its naval blockade before any talks begin. It follows the earlier account of Pakistan’s failed mediation and sits on the Iran-US talks tracker.

Trump has said publicly that there are no negotiations and that most people expect action after the election. The New York Times reports plans for a short, intensive strike round after 3 November, with no decision from Trump yet. Netanyahu says the aim is to topple the Iranian government, and Katz says Iran “will burn” if it attacks Israel. Tehran says talks need the blockade lifted first.

Trump spoke on Wednesday, 21 October, to reporters on his return from a rally, in remarks carried by Pakistan’s The Nation. Asked about talks, he said: “No, I think we’re not negotiating.” He went on: “We are going to have something one way or the other that’ll happen fairly soon.” And then: “Most people seem to think it’s after the election, and we’re going to see what happens.” At the rally he had said: “It’ll end very soon. We could leave now, but we want to make sure it lasts for a long time.”

The Times of Israel summarised the New York Times report on Thursday morning. Citing US officials and others briefed on the matter, the Times said the two militaries have plans for “a short but intensive operation” after 3 November. Possible targets are energy sites, nuclear facilities and missile and drone stores. The newspaper also said there is a small chance Trump orders strikes this month, and that it is far from certain he approves any. The White House told the Times it does not comment on military plans “that may or may not exist.”

Benjamin Netanyahu spoke on Tuesday at the opening of the academic year at Tel Hai University in Kiryat Shmona, as reported by the Times of Israel. “I am committed to finishing the job,” he said. “Finishing the job means bringing down the terrorist regime in Iran.” On Wednesday, at a graduation ceremony for IDF officer cadets, he said there is “only one way to remove this threat once and for all,” which he described as to topple the regime in Iran, according to the Times of Israel’s report of the ceremony. At the same ceremony Defence Minister Israel Katz said: “If Iran attacks Israel, Iran will burn!”

On Thursday morning Katz said that any future attack on Israel would be “licensed in the names” of opposition leaders Yair Lapid, Naftali Bennett and Yair Golan, who had criticised the government’s pre-election security warnings, the Times of Israel reported. Lapid replied that the statement was a “gift to Israel’s enemies.” The same outlet noted that security sources cited by Kan, Haaretz and Army Radio said the IDF had identified no specific threat.

In an op-ed in the Financial Times, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote that Iran “is prepared to give diplomacy another chance if we see strong evidence of a sincere desire on the part of the U.S.,” as Military.com reported. President Masoud Pezeshkian told Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir in Tehran: “Our nation today does not trust the United States and believes that if we negotiate, they will attack us again.” On Wednesday he said Iran and the US could “sit together and talk” when Washington “recognizes the rights of the Iranian people and stops bullying and aggression.” Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, told Munir that no enriched material leaves Iran and there would be “no negotiations until America takes steps to build trust”, according to state television.

At sea, the Revolutionary Guards navy said four vessels carrying oil were hit and caught fire in the northern Persian Gulf and three more hit mines west of Hormuz. It warned that continued US “provocations” could bring a wider response against American regional bases, Reuters reported through the Times of Israel.

Trump says the outcome comes “fairly soon” and that “most people seem to think it’s after the election.” The Times puts the plans after 3 November. Earlier this month the Times of Israel reported him saying the US would not attack “at any time prior to the midterm elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd.” The date has not moved. What changed this week is that he now says there are no negotiations.

The Financial Times reported, as relayed by the Times of Israel, that the IDF was ready to strike on the weekend of 10 October and that Trump opposed reigniting the fighting before the midterms. A source told the paper a restart after both elections was “not an unreasonable scenario.” Netanyahu’s office denied a separate Channel 12 report that he had urged Trump to renew the fighting before Israel’s vote. Netanyahu’s public line this week gives the goal and no date.

Katz spoke inside Israel’s campaign. The opposition had criticised the government’s warnings of an enemy attack before the vote, and Katz answered by naming its leaders. Lapid called that a gift to Israel’s enemies. Security sources told Israeli outlets they had seen no specific threat.

Pezeshkian, Rezaei and Araghchi each name a step for Washington to take first: recognise Iranian rights, build trust, show a sincere desire for peace. In a phone call with Pakistan’s prime minister, reported by JFeed from state broadcaster IRIB, Pezeshkian named the blockade of Iranian ports as the obstacle to remove. Araghchi’s seven-day plan would reopen Hormuz on the sixth day and resume talks on the seventh. Gulf News reported on 8 October that it was still on the table.

The Soufan Center titled its 20 October IntelBrief “Middle East on Edge as Prospects for Renewed Warfare Increase.” Reuters reported on 20 October that Iran is prolonging the talks stalemate to influence the US midterms, according to officials. Both capitals are timing their positions to the same election.

Israel votes on 27 October and America on 3 November. Trump’s own phrase, “after the election,” is the marker: any US decision before 3 November would contradict what he told reporters and the Times report. On the Iranian side, watch whether Araghchi’s seven-day plan gets a US reply and whether the Guards’ warning about American bases is followed by action at sea. The Times says strikes remain unapproved, and the next statements from Trump, Netanyahu and Pezeshkian will show whether that is still true.