Why Is Iran Refusing US Talks After Pakistan’s Visit?

Pakistan’s army chief visited Tehran on Tuesday and no breakthrough was announced. By Wednesday the Iranian and American sides had each restated their terms. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called a peace deal “extremely difficult.” A Financial Times report added that Israel had been ready to strike Iran on the weekend of October 10.

Our earlier account of Pakistan’s mediation covered the mediation, and the Iran-US talks tracker keeps the running record. What follows is what has been said since.

Field Marshal Asim Munir met President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran on October 20 and, according to Dawn, left without a formal agreement. Araghchi, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei each said the United States must act first. Rubio said economic pressure continues until attacks on shipping stop. The Financial Times reported that Donald Trump held Israel back from a strike before the November 3 midterms.

Dawn reported that Munir, accompanied by Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, met Pezeshkian and other senior officials on Tuesday, October 20, and that no breakthrough was announced. Iranian officials told the Pakistanis that acceptance of Tehran’s seven-point proposal could be a starting point for renewed talks, Dawn wrote, and that Iran would not make concessions under pressure.

Ghalibaf said the United States could not regain Iran’s trust without meeting the seven conditions Tehran presented in New York. In the words Dawn quoted: “Threats and military manoeuvres cannot influence the strategic decisions of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

Rezaei was blunter on state television, as Gulf News reported. “Not even a tiny bit of enriched nuclear material will leave Iran,” he said. “There will be no negotiations until America takes steps to build trust.”

In an interview with Iraq’s Al-Ikhbariya network, relayed by ANI, Araghchi said: “The American side must accept our conditions to open the strait to ships and vessels,” he said. He said Washington must first adhere to the Islamabad memorandum, and that Iran’s Seven-Day Plan had the strait “fully opened on the sixth day.” The United States signalled agreement, he said, but sought additional clauses on topics already discussed. He added that indirect contacts continue through Pakistan and Qatar. “Iran will not surrender in any way,” he said, “neither to economic sanctions nor to military threats.”

Rubio described the prospects of an agreement as “extremely difficult,” Geo News reported on Wednesday. He said economic pressure would continue, and that tanker traffic through Hormuz had climbed back above 80 percent of its prewar volume, a figure Iran has repeatedly disputed.

On Tuesday the Revolutionary Guards navy said a supertanker carrying more than two million barrels of crude had hit a naval mine south of the strait. Gulf News carried the Guards’ account, in which the vessel had switched off its radar and ignored warnings on a route Tehran considers unauthorised.

Each side names a first step for the other. Araghchi: honour the memorandum before talks. Rezaei: “steps to build trust” before negotiations. Rubio: attacks on shipping stop before pressure eases.

The Soufan Center’s October 20 IntelBrief, written before the Tehran visit ended, put the waiting game this way: “One U.S. official told journalists last week that U.S. and Qatari mediators are still waiting for an Iranian response to a U.S. counterproposal to end the war.” Dawn’s account is that Iranian officials gave Munir their response to a US proposal on Tuesday. Neither text has been published.

The Soufan Center wrote that Netanyahu, who faces voters on October 27, “might renew his strikes on Iran’s regime.” Trump’s October 8 post covers only the days to the November 3 midterms.

Ghalibaf said threats cannot move Tehran, and Araghchi told the Iraqi network that Iran will not surrender to military threats. The Guards reported a mine strike on a supertanker on the same day Rubio put traffic above 80 percent of prewar levels.

The Israeli vote on October 27 comes first, then the US midterms on November 3. Three markers would show whether Pakistan’s channel is working: publication or leaks of the US counterproposal and Iran’s reply, any step on the Islamabad memorandum from Washington, and any shipping incident near Hormuz after the Guards’ mine claim.

No one has yet moved first. The Tehran visit delivered messages and opened no negotiation.