Vance Says Washington Cannot Tell Who Decides in Tehran. Iran Says the Problem Is Washington

JD Vance told Reuters that Iran must cut its nuclear enrichment capacity to end the seven-month war, and that the United States is “not totally clear” how Iran makes its decisions. A day later Donald Trump said his “biggest problem” is that no one knows who is running Iran. Iran’s foreign ministry had answered the charge before it was repeated: the confusion, it said, sits on the American side.

The exchange follows Masoud Pezeshkian’s remark that talks were meaningless, covered here on 6 October. New is the American price for a deal, and the stated doubt about who in Tehran can accept it.

Vance named enrichment as the test of Iranian good faith in an interview on 5 October. Trump repeated on 6 October a complaint he first made in March. Tehran’s foreign ministry says the US has a messaging problem. Iranian lawmakers, meanwhile, moved on 24 September to impeach Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi over his talks with American envoys.

After a campaign rally in Fairbanks, Alaska, on Monday 5 October, Vance told Reuters that any agreement would need Iran to reduce its enrichment capacity, not offer assurances of future cuts. In Reuters’ account of the interview he put it this way: “If you don’t want a nuclear weapon, then why do you need 60% enriched fuel?” He added: “We’re not going to trade words for actions.”

He also told Reuters: “I think if they want to show a commitment to not building a nuclear weapon, they would do something meaningful on their enrichment capacity.”

On who decides, Vance said the US is talking to President Pezeshkian and Araghchi. Reuters reported that it was unclear how much authority they hold after the strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at the start of the war. Vance’s words: “One of the things we picked up on is it’s not totally clear how their country makes decisions.”

Reuters added that Trump said on Tuesday 6 October that his “biggest problem” is that no one knows who is running Iran. Only the two words “biggest problem” are Trump’s own in that report.

On 16 March, at a White House event, Trump had said: “We don’t know who their leader is. We have people wanting to negotiate. We have no idea who they are.” Tehran had by then announced that Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father. The Pentagon had said the new leader was believed to be wounded, and he had not appeared in public.

Iran’s answer came first. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told a weekly press conference on Sunday 4 October, according to Reuters, that US officials know exactly who their Iranian counterparts are and how the system works. His line: “The problem is actually the opposite: it lies in the contradictory positions and mixed messaging from US officials.”

Araghchi, for his part, told ambassadors in Tehran that there is no military solution and none based on new sanctions, according to reports of the meeting on 4 October. The same reports say Iran’s seven-day plan would reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US agreed to it. Trump has rejected that plan, as Silent Dossier reported.

Baghaei’s rebuttal came on Sunday, a day before Vance’s interview was recorded.

Iran has an authority dispute of its own. On 24 September, after Araghchi’s contacts with the US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner at the UN General Assembly in New York, lawmakers registered an impeachment motion. Gulf News reported that Ali Khezrian, a member of parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, said: “Members of parliament have registered the impeachment of Araghchi and are pursuing it.” Khezrian said Araghchi must explain “on what basis this conversation with the American side took place.”

The Week reported that Tasnim said the contact happened “without coordination and approval from policy-making and responsible bodies.” It also reported that Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, said in a television interview that the aim had been to pass Iran’s seven conditions to mediators. Tasnim read that as an indication that no permission was given to deviate from it.

Vance says the US cannot tell how much power Pezeshkian and Araghchi hold. Khezrian says Araghchi had no authorisation for the conversation he had. Baghaei says the system is no mystery.

Reuters noted that the war costs $3 billion a month and that higher energy prices have put Trump and Republicans on the defensive before the November midterms. Reuters said Vance has told voters not to let the war keep them from backing Republicans, and that Trump has rejected Tehran’s latest offer and warned that military operations could intensify after the midterms. Vance spoke in Alaska, where Reuters said Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is in a tight reelection fight.

Watch three markers. First, whether Iran’s parliament takes up the Araghchi impeachment motion or lets it lapse. Second, whether the Supreme National Security Council, where Rezaei is secretary, or the supreme leader’s office answers the enrichment demand in public. Third, whether Washington names a figure it treats as the decision maker, or keeps saying it does not know.

Until one of those happens, the enrichment demand has no recipient Washington accepts.