Would a 200% Tariff Make Russia and Ukraine Settle?

At a campaign rally in Fort Myers, Florida, on Friday, 23 October, President Donald Trump said the United States should “probably” put a 200% tariff on Ukraine and Russia. Within the same breath he said it would not work, because Washington buys too little from either country. On Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told ABC News that Ukraine had received 24 Patriot interceptors from the United States in 90 days.

Two days earlier, Secretary of State Marco Rubio had said that the war “is about Donbas.” The three statements land ahead of the trilateral talks that Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov placed in Abu Dhabi in the first half of November, as Silent Dossier reported in the piece on Russian diesel shipments to the US.

Trump called his 200% figure something that “doesn’t work.” Zelensky told ABC News he is ready “to freeze the front line” and that Ukraine has received 24 Patriot interceptors in 90 days. Rubio said “both sides will have to make some concessions.” The November talks are the first test of whether any of the three changes what Moscow or Kyiv does.

At the Alico Arena in Fort Myers, as Kyiv Post transcribed the remarks, Trump said: “We ended five wars thanks to tariffs.” He then turned to Ukraine: “We should probably immediately do it with Ukraine and Russia. Never thought of it.” And then: “But we don’t buy enough to do it to them, so it doesn’t work.”

Ukrinform worded the passage slightly differently and carried the line behind the number: “If you continue to fight, we’re going to put a 200% tariff on both of you,” Trump said, describing what he had told other countries at war. Kyiv Post reported no official reply from Kyiv or Moscow.

On Thursday, 22 October, Kyiv Post reported Rubio saying: “That war is about Donbas. It’s about one region of the country.” The same report quotes him: “This war is only going to end diplomatically,” and “both sides will have to make some concessions.” The Kyiv Independent reported that he spoke to reporters during a visit to India. It added that in the US-led process Russia demands that Ukrainian forces leave all of Donbas, and that Moscow rejects a ceasefire without it.

Zelensky’s ABC News interview was reported on 24 October. On the front line, Kyiv Post quoted him: “Yes, we are ready to put an end to this war as quickly as possible... To freeze the front line.” On territory he said: “Right now, they control 19.3 percent,” and “We will never recognize the occupied territory as Russian.” A 25 percent line, he said, would mean giving up all of Donbas.

On air defense, Kyiv Post quoted him saying: “Over the last 90 days, I have received 24 missiles from our strategic partner. We don’t cry, and we don’t scream, but this is very important. I am just trying to say that every missile matters.” He compared that with Middle East stocks: “In the first 84 hours, they launched about 2,000 missiles received from partners.” Kyiv Post reported that Ukraine needs roughly 350 Patriot interceptors a month.

On the talks, Kyiv Post reported Zelensky as saying Kyiv is “ready to meet any day, even tomorrow, but it all depends on the Russians.” He named Abu Dhabi as the main proposed venue for early or mid-November, Kyiv Post reported. An anonymous US official told Sky News the talks could be held in Abu Dhabi or Switzerland within weeks, at working level first.

Rubio spoke on Thursday and asked both sides to concede. Trump spoke on Friday and named a tariff for both sides, then said it would fail. Zelensky spoke on Saturday and asked for interceptors, the one item Washington controls directly.

John Herbst, a former US ambassador to Ukraine now at the Atlantic Council, wrote on 23 October that “On October 17, Trump waived the sanctions in the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026.” Herbst wrote that continued Starlink and Starshield limits on Ukraine indicate “the White House’s policy of pressure on the victim continues.” The earlier Silent Dossier article records Rubio saying the administration needed about 60 days to assess sanctions, which runs to mid-December.

Rubio’s Donbas sentence and Zelensky’s answer meet at the same map. Russia demands all of Donbas, the Kyiv Independent reported. Zelensky answered with 19.3 percent and “We will never recognize the occupied territory as Russian,” and offered a freeze. The Kyiv Independent reported that Moscow rejects a freeze.

Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute wrote on 23 October that “both Russia and Ukraine have expressed support for resuming negotiations over a prospective peace deal,” but that this holds only if Brussels and Kyiv make “a joint offer based on reasonable terms.” Herbst, in his piece, describes pressure on Kyiv. Lieven asks Kyiv and Brussels for the offer.

The trilateral talks are planned for the first half of November in Abu Dhabi, per Peskov on 23 October. An anonymous US official told Sky News the talks would be at working level first. A Patriot delivery announcement after Zelensky’s figure of 24 would be the second marker, and any Russian answer to Kyiv’s freeze offer the third. Rubio’s 60-day sanctions review runs to mid-December.