Why Is Russia Shipping Diesel to the US Before Talks?

Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, told reporters on Friday that the first Russian diesel tanker under the Trump and Putin deal was under way to the United States. In the same briefing he said the next round of Russia, Ukraine and US talks is scheduled for the first half of November in Abu Dhabi. On 9 October President Trump said after a call with Putin that Russia would supply diesel to US and world markets. Envoy Steve Witkoff met Putin in St. Petersburg on 21 October. Earlier pieces covered Putin’s Shenzhen proposal and what Witkoff took to St. Petersburg.

The Kremlin confirmed the first cargo and named a month and a city for the next talks on the same day. Zelensky, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš objected to the diesel arrangement in their own words. Rubio and Energy Secretary Chris Wright gave different accounts of its purpose. The US midterm elections fall on 3 November, inside Peskov’s window.

Peskov spoke on Friday, 23 October. In remarks carried by TASS he put it this way: “the talks we are discussing, which are scheduled for the first half of November in Abu Dhabi, will be held in a trilateral format.” Asked about European participation, he said: “Nothing can be ruled out in advance.” Ukraine’s UNN agency reported that he called the security agenda “one of the very important components of a peaceful settlement” and that whether the EU sends a special envoy depends on Brussels’ position, as UNN reported. UNN noted that the claim comes from the Russian side.

On the fuel, Russian outlets reported him saying deliveries would continue at a steady pace. The size of the first cargo came earlier from Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who said on Wednesday that the tanker would carry 40,000 tonnes, according to LBC. Putin said: “We are preparing deliveries of several vessels, the tankers, right now.” Trump has said Russia would then send 500,000 tonnes in November and 1 million tonnes after that. Putin said global diesel prices had fallen 5 to 6 percent since the agreement.

At St. Petersburg on Wednesday, Witkoff told Putin: “That’s an example of us working together, I want to thank you for that.”

Volodymyr Zelensky wrote on X on 10 October: “Allowing Russia to sell petroleum products is an investment in a war that must be ended, not prolonged,” Cyprus Mail reported. He added: “Gifts to Putin will not bring peace or any benefit to the civilised world.”

Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, wrote the same day: “Suspending sanctions on Russian diesel provides Moscow with more revenues to wage war. This is not the time to ease pressure on Russia, and Europe won’t,” in a post reported by European Pravda.

Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, speaking to the ČTK agency, said: “I understand that he has elections coming up. For Europe, this is a big slap in the face,” according to Expats.cz.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters at Joint Base Andrews on 17 October that the diesel would be sold regardless: “The only difference is how much of it the United States was going to get,” RFE/RL reported. He said the administration needed about 60 days to assess the effect of sanctions and tariffs. The 60-day review is covered separately. Senator Thom Tillis, a Republican, called the waiver “beyond irresponsible.”

Energy Secretary Chris Wright described the diesel as “a carrot to try to end the war, not an economic lifeline” for Russia, as Axios reported.

Peskov gave the tanker and the talks in one briefing. His window is the first half of November. The US midterms are on 3 November, and Babiš said of Trump on 10 October: “I understand that he has elections coming up.” Reuters headlined a report on 23 October: “Trump’s diesel price relief efforts grow costlier as election nears.”

Analysts differ on what the shipment is worth to Moscow. Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, wrote on 13 October that Russia “stands to make $30-$40 per ton of product, or tens of millions of dollars per month.” He added that Russia “still won’t be able to use vessels belonging to EU shipowners, which will reduce the effect,” and that the cash “will go not to the state budget, but to companies.” The Council on Foreign Relations wrote in an explainer updated on 19 October that “Diesel sales will generate revenue that could be used to prolong the war in Ukraine.”

Wright called the diesel a carrot to end the war. Zelensky called it an investment in the war. Peskov’s Friday remarks did not say what Kyiv is offered in return.

The first marker is the tanker’s arrival at a US port. The second is Kyiv’s answer on the Abu Dhabi date, and whether a European envoy attends. Peskov said “Nothing can be ruled out in advance.” Kallas wrote that Europe “won’t” ease pressure.

The third is the end of the 60 days Rubio described on 17 October, which falls in mid-December. By then the shipments will be measured against the talks.