Head to head · SD Strength Index
Russia vs Ukraine Military Power 2026 Compared
on 7 of 7 areas
| 46 | Air powercounts for 24% | 14 | ||
| 46 | Missiles & strikecounts for 15% | 15 | ||
| 78 | Air & missile defencecounts for 14% | 27 | ||
| 64 | Sea powercounts for 13% | 0 | ||
| 69 | Land forcescounts for 10% | 34 | ||
| 92 | Manpowercounts for 6% | 70 | ||
| 47 | Budget & industrycounts for 18% | 31 |
Key figures
| Russia | Ukraine | |
|---|---|---|
| Defence budget ($bn) | 145–200 | 55–75 |
| Active personnel | 1.1m–1.5m | 800k–1m |
| Reserves | 1.5m–2m | — |
| Combat aircraft | 1,000–1,300 | 60–120 |
| Fifth-generation fighters | 16–35 | 0 |
| Attack helicopters | 320–420 | 20–40 |
| Main battle tanks | 2,000–3,500 | 900–1,800 |
| Aircraft carriers | 0–1 | 0 |
| Submarines | 56–64 | 0 |
| Naval fleet | 300–600 | 10–30 |
| Ballistic missiles | 300–350 | — |
| Missile range (km) | 18k | 1,500–3,000 |
| Long-range air-defence batteries | 90–150 | 7–13 |
| Nuclear warheads | 5,400–5,600 | 0 |
Branch by branch
| Air power Advantage: Russia | Russia. An estimated 700 to 900 fighters, including 16 to 35 Su-57s, and 100 to 125 bombers after Ukrainian drones destroyed 10 to 13 in June 2025. | Ukraine. An estimated 85 fighters: 40 to 75 donated F-16s, a few Mirage 2000-5Fs and older Soviet MiG-29s and Su-27s. Sweden has promised 16 Gripen C/Ds within about ten months of May 2026. |
| Missiles and long range strike Advantage: Russia | Russia. About 170 Iskander-M launchers, Kalibr, Kh-101 and Kinzhal missiles, the Oreshnik intermediate range missile and Geran attack drones built in the thousands every month. | Ukraine. The FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile, claimed to reach 3,000 km and reportedly built at about one a day, plus FP-1 and Liutyi long range drones. |
| Air and missile defence Advantage: Russia | Russia. An estimated 50 to 60 S-400 battalions, several of them lost to Ukrainian strikes. | Ukraine. An estimated 6 to 10 Patriot batteries, one to three SAMP/T and 10 to 25 IRIS-T and NASAMS units. Interceptor stocks are the limit. |
| Naval Advantage: Russia | Russia. About 60 submarines and a large surface fleet. Ukraine estimates about 30 per cent of the Black Sea Fleet has been lost or damaged, a figure Silent Dossier cannot verify. | Ukraine. No major warships, and its one Ada corvette is still in Turkey. Uncrewed surface drones do the work a navy would. |
| Land forces Advantage: Russia | Russia. An estimated 2,000 to 3,500 tanks with units. Stored tanks have fallen from 7,342 in 2021 to about 2,088, and only about 851 of those look restorable. | Ukraine. An estimated 900 to 1,800 tanks, a mix of Leopards, Abrams and Soviet T-64 and T-72 types, backed by drones in their millions. |
| Manpower Advantage: Russia | Russia. An estimated 1.1 million to 1.5 million active troops, with North Korean soldiers, shells and missiles adding to the effort. | Ukraine. An estimated 880,000 under arms. People are Ukraine's tightest constraint. |
If it came to war
| Scenario | Short war | Long war |
|---|---|---|
| The air and drone war continues at its 2026 pace | Russia Russia launches drones and missiles faster than Ukraine receives Patriot interceptors. Ukraine's president says 2026 deliveries are running at about a third of 2025's. | Even Ukraine built more interceptor drones in the first four months of 2026 than in all of 2025, and its Flamingo strikes reach Russian factories. On present trends Silent Dossier rates the long run even. |
| The ground war of attrition | Russia Russia has more troops, armour and artillery to spend. | Even Russia's stored tanks are nearly used up, even as its 2027 draft budget lifts defence to 17.1tn roubles. Ukraine's limit is people. Neither problem has a quick fix, and Silent Dossier does not forecast which gives way first. |
Who is stronger, Russia or Ukraine?
Russia, by a wide margin. It has about 4,300 warheads in its military nuclear stockpile, roughly ten times Ukraine's number of fighters and a defence budget Silent Dossier puts at $145bn to $200bn. Ukraine spends an estimated $65bn, about 27 per cent of its GDP, before foreign aid.
That gap has not brought Russia a quick victory. The war is in its fifth year since the full invasion of February 2022, Ukraine fights with donated F-16s, Patriots and Leopards alongside its own drones and missiles, and Russia's larger force has had to grind through all of them.
What does the battlefield look like in October 2026?
Drones dominate both sides of the line. Russia builds Geran attack drones by the thousand each month and drops glide bombs at scale. Ukraine plans more than 7 million drones in 2026 and now builds interceptor drones to hunt the Gerans.
Both sides strike deep. Ukrainian drones destroyed an estimated 10 to 13 strategic bombers at Russian air bases on 1 June 2025, and a Flamingo missile hit a plant in Cheboksary on 10 June 2026. Russia first fired its Oreshnik missile in November 2024 and put a unit on duty in Belarus in December 2025.
How many tanks does Russia have left?
Silent Dossier estimates 2,000 to 3,500 tanks serve with Russian units. The reserve is the problem. Satellite counts show storage fell from 7,342 tanks before the war to about 2,088 in June 2026, and only about 851 of those look worth restoring. Visually confirmed Russian tank losses since 2022 exceed 4,000.
What is Ukraine short of?
Soldiers and interceptors. Ukraine's president says Patriot interceptor deliveries in 2026 are about a third of 2025's, and defence funding is about $27bn behind plan. Drones are not the bottleneck: Ukraine says it can build more than 8 million FPV drones a year.
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Questions readers ask
Who is winning the Russia Ukraine war?
Silent Dossier does not call a winner in an active war. As of October 2026, Russia has more troops, armour and firepower, while Ukraine has inflicted heavy losses and struck targets deep inside Russia. Russia is running short of stored tanks and Ukraine of soldiers and interceptors.
How many tanks does Russia have?
An estimated 2,000 to 3,500 with active units in 2026, plus about 2,088 in storage, of which roughly 851 look restorable. Ukraine has an estimated 900 to 1,800.
How many soldiers does Ukraine have?
An estimated 880,000 active personnel in October 2026. Russia has an estimated 1.1 million to 1.5 million, against a decreed strength of 1.5 million.
Does Ukraine have F-16s?
Yes. Silent Dossier estimates 40 to 75 are in service, donated by Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and Belgium. Sweden is giving 16 Gripen C/Ds, and Gripen Es bought by Ukraine are due from about 2029.