Why Is the US Holding Up Patriot Missiles for Ukraine?

On Monday 26 October, Ukraine‘s president said his country had been waiting almost a month for the US defense secretary to sign off on missiles for its Patriot and NASAMS air defenses. The same morning, the Kremlin’s spokesman said that resuming three-way talks “does not imply any restrictions on combat operations.”

The two statements came a day after Moscow named 4 November as the date after which it would be ready to talk again. A planned Brussels meeting on security guarantees, which Volodymyr Zelensky had announced for 27 or 28 October, lost its confirmation the same day.

Zelensky says missiles that Ukraine’s allies have already paid for are waiting on Pete Hegseth’s approval. Dmitry Peskov says Russian forces will keep striking Ukraine’s defense industry while talks resume. Kyiv has stopped confirming a Brussels meeting after what its adviser called a change in American plans, and a round of talks with the United States is planned for the first half of November.

After a meeting on arms supplies and energy repairs, Zelensky wrote in Ukrainian, in a post carried by Ukrinform, that “for almost a month we have been waiting for Mr. Hegseth’s signature on missiles for Patriots and NASAMS” (Silent Dossier’s translation). He said he had told his team to raise the matter with the American side again. The Kyiv Independent reported that the missiles are already paid for by Ukraine’s allies and that a senior Ukrainian official called the batch “significant.” Its report contained no response from Hegseth or the Pentagon.

The day before, Zelensky had told the TSN programme “The Week” that progress on air defense was “very slow” and that Patriot deliveries had been delayed, according to the Kyiv Independent’s account of the interview. In the same interview he set his order of business for the talks: “The issue of territory is a red line that can only be discussed at the level of leaders.” Other issues, he said, can go to technical groups, and he named the first three: “Energy, grain, and people.”

The Kremlin’s timetable came from Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy aide. He told the state outlet Vesti on Sunday, as the Kyiv Independent reported: “The next deadline is now Nov. 4, our major holiday. After that, we will be ready to resume negotiations.” Ushakov called the first meeting a “trial run.”

On Monday Peskov added the condition. According to AFP, he said the decision to resume the trilateral format “does not imply any restrictions on combat operations” and that Russian forces “continue to carry out massive strikes on Ukraine’s military-industrial complex.” Asked about more local truces, he said: “For humanitarian purposes, absolutely.” AFP reported that a ceasefire in the occupied city of Oleshky, brokered by US First Lady Melania Trump, was due to begin early Tuesday.

Zelensky’s Brussels plan was the third item. He had said the meeting would bring Ukraine, the United States, the EU and NATO together on 27 or 28 October. On Monday his communications adviser, Dmytro Lytvyn, told reporters that Kyiv could no longer confirm the visit because the American side’s plans had changed, Euronews reported. Zelensky had said Washington first offered a briefing after Steve Witkoff’s meeting with Putin in St Petersburg, and then “now they want not just a briefing, but to discuss security, guarantees.” A European Commission spokesperson said: “At this stage, we have no further information to share.”

On Sunday Ushakov put the next round after 4 November, and Zelensky said territory is for leaders and everything else for technical teams. On Monday morning Peskov said fighting continues. The same morning Zelensky said the missiles that protect against it are waiting for a signature.

Peskov’s local-truce answer came with the Oleshky ceasefire, which AFP said Melania Trump brokered. His general line was that the war goes on.

Two items on Ukraine’s agenda now depend on Washington. The missiles need Hegseth. The Brussels meeting needs an American delegation whose plans, in Lytvyn’s words, changed. Zelensky said Washington had first offered a briefing after the Witkoff meeting with Putin, then wanted to discuss “security, guarantees,” and by Monday Kyiv could not confirm the meeting.

Four dates and markers will show which reading holds:

Whether Hegseth or the Pentagon answers Zelensky’s public complaint, and whether the batch moves. Whether the Brussels meeting takes place on 27 or 28 October, and who sits across from Zelensky. Whether the Oleshky ceasefire begins on Tuesday and holds, and whether Peskov’s humanitarian answer on further local truces produces a second one. Whether the round expected after 4 November is fixed for Abu Dhabi, which has been mentioned but not confirmed, and whether Russian strikes on energy sites ease before it.

Silent Dossier’s earlier reporting on this track is in Will Russia Really Resume Peace Talks With Ukraine? and Would Russia Accept an EU Envoy for Ukraine Talks?. Air defense deliveries and an energy ceasefire are both on Zelensky’s record this week.