What Will Witkoff Tell Putin After the Oslo Talks?

The Oslo meeting ended with one concrete result and one open question. Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday that the American early warning of Russian ballistic missiles was working again. Hours later Donald Trump told reporters at the White House that “we want Zelenskyy to make a deal.” Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy who sat across the table from Zelensky in Norway, is due to meet Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, 21 October.

The talks follow a week in which Kyiv accused Washington of slowing its support, as we set out in an earlier analysis. This piece covers what the Oslo meeting changed and what Moscow has said it will do with Witkoff’s proposal.

Zelensky reported that the missile warning system resumed after the Oslo talks and a call with Marco Rubio. The administration denies that any political decision lay behind the earlier gaps. Trump keeps placing the burden of a settlement on Kyiv. Sergei Lavrov said Russia will listen to the envoys but will make no political concessions.

Zelensky met Witkoff on Tuesday 20 October, with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Finnish President Alexander Stubb present and Jared Kushner joining by video, according to NBC News. Zelensky had gone to Oslo, PBS reported, to avoid a further rupture with Trump.

Afterwards Zelensky told reporters that the early warning system was restored. “Now it works,” he said, in remarks Reuters carried. In a post that evening he wrote that the meeting “was constructive because all of us want peace,” according to Euronews.

Støre said he was glad the sides had been able “to straighten out a few things,” PBS reported. Stubb said “we have actually made a lot of progress” and that the peace process was “back on track.”

A US official, quoted by Reuters, said Witkoff would aim to “create a pathway toward direct trilateral and broader multilateral negotiations.” The same official said the Oslo agenda covered security guarantees, a post-war economic plan and a wider European security architecture. Axios reported that Witkoff will present Putin with an updated proposal in St. Petersburg and that Kushner again pressed Trump’s demand that Ukraine stop striking Russian oil refineries.

The warning system had been the centre of the dispute. On 19 October Zelensky told a bipartisan group of US lawmakers, as NBC quoted him: “All of this suggests that some political decision has been made to slow down support for us.”

Rubio answered on 20 October at the start of a trip to India. “That’s scandalous. That’s outrageous. That’s just simply not true,” he said. He added: “There’s nothing being deliberately denied to Ukraine.” Reuters quoted him separately: “There has not been some deliberate political directive to go out and harm Ukraine.”

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, quoted by PBS, said: “We haven’t changed our posture in any way toward the Ukrainians.” On interceptors he said: “Certainly, with things like interceptors, we want to make sure our guys have the most possible as well.” Reuters reported that Hegseth had not approved Ukraine’s latest request for Patriot interceptors. Zelensky has said Ukraine receives 12 Patriot missiles a month, a quarter of the Biden-era figure, as The National reported.

At the White House on the same day Trump said: “We want Zelenskyy to make a deal. He can make a deal.” He added that “we have given tremendous amounts to Ukraine; we’ve got nothing back. Other than high diesel,” and closed with “It’s time to make a deal,” Euronews reported. Reuters quoted him as saying “Ukraine has to want to settle this war,” and describing Russia as “a big machine” that “just keeps grinding forward.”

The diesel reference is to a deal about ten days earlier, in which Trump lifted sanctions on Russian diesel, according to Reuters. Over the weekend he also issued a broad waiver of tougher Russia sanctions that were due to start that week. We examined that decision in our piece on the Graham Act waiver.

Trump had said on Monday, outside the White House, “Maybe it’s time for Zelenskyy to get somebody else to negotiate,” as Al Jazeera reported. Zelensky answered on Tuesday on the proposed Trump, Xi and Putin meeting: “Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,” he said at a press conference with the Nordic leaders, Yahoo News reported. He also said: “Of course, we’re not losing this war, but we are losing people.”

Lavrov spoke on Tuesday at a meeting with graduates newly admitted to the diplomatic service, in remarks Interfax carried and EADaily published. “Let’s see what they offer,” he said. “If they offer something that is economically and financially beneficial to us, then why not?” He also said: “We have to rely only on ourselves.” The report records no concession on the political terms.

Russia’s defence ministry said it struck three cargo vessels in the Ukrainian port of Reni and two more heading for Odesa, Reuters reported. Ukraine held off hitting Russian refineries for several days last week at Trump’s request, then resumed after Russia showed no sign of doing the same, according to the same report.

Zelensky’s “Now it works” and Rubio’s “scandalous” describe the same warning system within hours of each other. On Monday Kyiv said a political decision had been made. On Tuesday the warnings were restored, and Washington still says no such decision existed.

Trump’s list of what the US received is short: “high diesel.” Lavrov’s list of what Russia will consider is also short: what is “economically and financially beneficial.” Kushner’s request that Ukraine stop hitting refineries, Trump’s diesel waiver and Lavrov’s remark all concern oil and money. The Oslo agenda concerned security guarantees.

Ushakov said in December that some American proposals were acceptable to Russia and others were not. In August Lavrov asked what the envoys would bring. On Tuesday he said what would count: something “economically and financially beneficial.”

Wednesday’s meeting is the first marker. A Kremlin readout using the word “trilateral” would signal movement on the pathway the US official described. A readout that repeats Lavrov’s formula, listening without conceding, would leave Trump’s “make a deal” aimed at Kyiv alone.

The second marker is the warning system. Zelensky will report the next Russian ballistic strike, and whether Ukraine received notice will test Rubio’s account. The third is the Patriot interceptors Hegseth has not approved.

The fourth is the proposed Trump, Xi and Putin meeting, which Rubio said has been discussed but not confirmed. If it is confirmed, Zelensky has said Ukraine must be at the table.