Did the Iran War Cost Republicans the US Midterms?

Donald Trump says so himself. Within hours of the US midterm results of 3 and 4 November, which gave Democrats control of Congress, Trump said the war with Iran contributed to Republican losses. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who leads Tehran’s side of the talks with Washington, wrote on X that Americans “said NO TO WAR” and that Iran “endorses” the message.

Trump said he would take the same decision on Iran again. Ghalibaf added a threat to his congratulations. The two statements arrived on a war that began in February with joint US and Israeli strikes on Iran, days after Silent Dossier reported that Gulf states were told to brace for a short, intense new round once the votes were counted.

Trump said Iran “was a piece of” the Republican losses and that the war “will end when I say it ends.” Ghalibaf said the vote carried a message against the war and warned that Iran’s “NO comes with a Nightmare.” Democrats now hold the votes to force a binding war powers vote.

In a telephone call with a US broadcaster overnight, Trump said: “My message is, congratulations to the Democrats, and I look forward to working with you for the good of our country.” He added: “I have total veto power and I’m sure we’ll be able to work things out.” Then: “Otherwise I’d just veto everything and they’re not gonna want that.”

Asked in a newspaper interview whether the war had cost Republicans seats, Trump answered “Iran was a piece of it,” and said he would make the same decision again. In a television interview on Wednesday he said: “People agree with what I am doing on Iran but they probably weren’t willing to do the short-term consequence.” He added: “I don’t like to consider it a defeat for me.” On the war itself he said: “It’ll end when I say it ends.”

Ghalibaf replied on X after projections showed Democrats holding majorities in both the House and the Senate. He wrote: “Conscience or the cost of living, Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message.” If the US government betrays the public will to serve “international paymasters and blackmailers,” he wrote, “it will learn our NO comes with a Nightmare.”

No Israeli government reaction to either statement had been found when this article was published.

Trump welcomed the Democrats, threatened them with a veto, admitted that Iran cost votes and said the war ends on his word. He announced no change of course.

Ghalibaf turned the admission into a mandate. His first sentence offers two possible reasons for the vote, “conscience or the cost of living,” and treats the answer as the same either way. His second sentence says a betrayal of that answer will meet a “Nightmare,” a threat from the man who sits across the table from Washington.

US press reports before the vote said Washington was preparing for possible renewed military action after the midterms. Trump told an interviewer this week that the US has no immediate plan to strike Iran but is “locked and loaded,” as Silent Dossier reported.

Trump’s own phrase for Iran’s share of the loss is “a piece of it.” Ghalibaf’s is “conscience or the cost of living.” Neither man claims the war was the only cause.

In June, both chambers, then under Republican control, passed a concurrent resolution calling for an end to the conflict. It is not binding, and Democrats now say they can pursue one that is.

First, whether House Democrats move a binding war powers resolution on Iran once the new Congress sits, and how many Republicans vote with them. A bill that clears both chambers by less than two thirds would force Trump to use the veto in public.

Second, whether Washington resumes strikes before the new Congress takes its seats. Trump has said the war ends when he says so, and Ghalibaf has said what Tehran’s answer would be.

Third, whether the talks Ghalibaf leads continue. His post speaks as a negotiator and as a threat in one breath.