Is a US-Iran Deal Close? What Vance and Tehran Said

Vice President JD Vance told reporters on Monday 2 November that the United States has “certainly made some progress” toward a deal with Iran. That evening Qatari mediators headed to Tehran to discuss a draft with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Araghchi’s own account of the day was narrower: the talks are “very intensive”, and Iranian officials said there was no breakthrough.

Vance spoke a day before the US midterm elections and four days after Trump said he would have to “give Iran the hammer” at some point. Oil fell more than 7 percent on Monday on hopes of an agreement.

• Vance, Trump and Araghchi each said indirect talks are active. None of them claimed a deal.
• Trump said “there is no rush” while keeping the military option open. Iranian officials said Hormuz could reopen within two days if their demands are met.
• The marker to watch is what the Qatari visit produces after the vote on Tuesday 3 November.

Vance spoke at Joint Base Andrews. “We’ve certainly made some progress,” he said. “We’ll see if we can make some more.” He added that “the president and I both feel pretty good about the prospects for potentially coming to a negotiated settlement.” He said no deadline had been set for resuming strikes.

Trump wrote on Truth Social that “Iran wants a settlement, as soon as possible. It could happen.” Asked by reporters whether he was considering strikes on Iran after the midterms, he answered “no”. Later he said: “One way or the other, we will do something, but there is no rush.”

Araghchi gave a video interview to Iran’s state news agency IRNA. “Given the sensitivity and gravity of the current situation, consultations and deliberations are very intensive,” he said. He described the talks as indirect, with Qatar and Pakistan playing “a very active mediating role”.

Other Iranian officials spoke the same day. A senior official said Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if Washington meets its demands, and foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei called that “a good-faith approach”. Baqaei also warned that any aggression “will be met with a powerful, immediate and comprehensive response.” First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref called the American messages “an acknowledgement of our victory.”

President Masoud Pezeshkian said Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had given the government powers to negotiate. Ali Bagheri, deputy secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, told China’s Wang Yi that Iran “will make no compromises” on its national security.

First, the outcome of the Qatari visit to Tehran: a joint statement, a published draft, or silence. Second, Trump’s position after the polls close on 3 November. Third, any Iranian statement on the Hormuz reopening that names a date.

Both sides said on Monday that they want the talks to continue. Neither has said what it would give up. The talks tracker follows each step, and the wider Iran war coverage has the earlier sequence.