Why Won’t Russia Agree to a Ceasefire in Ukraine Now?

Russia will not agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine until the postwar European security order is settled, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in Moscow on Tuesday 10 November, as the first day of the Abu Dhabi talks ended. “We will not agree to another ceasefire without understanding what will happen next,” he said. Lavrov argued that the outlines of a future security architecture in Europe should be discussed first and a ceasefire after it.

The same evening, at a press conference in Copenhagen, President Volodymyr Zelensky said the Russian delegation had claimed to hold half of the part of Donbas that Ukraine still controls. “This is the problem. Putin lives in a different reality,” Zelensky wrote. American officials said Wednesday’s session would turn to territory.

Day one, when Rubio called the session productive and Lavrov told the Europeans to wait in their hotel, is covered in our first-day account.

Lavrov said a security settlement must come before any truce. Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, said Kyiv had offered a narrower truce at sea and on energy targets and that Moscow had not answered. Zelensky said the American side agreed with Kyiv’s reading of the front. A prisoner exchange of up to 1,500 people on each side is the most concrete item Zelensky named.

Zelensky spoke in Denmark while his delegation stayed in Abu Dhabi. “I can draw a picture for him too where I fully occupy Russia,” he wrote of Putin, adding that “the American side confirmed the Ukrainian assessment of what is happening on the battlefield.”

He said the Russian side had also told the mediators it could take the whole of eastern Ukraine within a few months, which he called untrue. Territory, he said, was a matter for leaders rather than delegations.

Asked whether Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff had changed their approach, he said: “I see changes. I’m very happy with what I hear. We will see what can be done.”

On the American idea of a new security architecture for Europe, Zelensky said “nobody really understands 100% what they want,” and added that “nobody saw the documents, what the Americans discussed with the Russians.”

Zelensky told reporters the delegations had discussed a prisoner exchange of “1,000 for 1,000” or “1,500 for 1,500”, with details to follow. He listed Wednesday’s items as de-escalation, energy, the Black Sea, the exchange and a possible meeting of the three leaders. He said Europe should decide by the end of November who will negotiate for it, preferably at the Coalition of the Willing summit in Berlin on 19 November.

Lavrov spoke on the day the Collective Security Treaty Organization held its ministerial meetings in Moscow. He said European governments wanted an immediate truce to give Ukraine time to rearm. He cited European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as saying there would be no talks on a security architecture before a lasting ceasefire, and rejected that order.

Vladimir Medinsky, who leads the Russian delegation, said in Abu Dhabi that he hoped the meeting “will allow us to advance on the path towards peace in the interests of the people of Russia and the people of Ukraine.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking in Paris after a meeting of G7 foreign ministers, said: “It looks like the talks in Abu Dhabi were very productive.” He added: “It’s not like something that’s on the verge of being solved.” Asked whether Russia was ready for peace, Rubio said that was what Washington was testing.

Kushner wrote on X on Tuesday that the American side was “encouraged by the constructive discussions today” and was “working to end this devastating war.”

Sybiha said on Ukraine’s national telethon on Tuesday, after the G7 meeting, that Kyiv had passed partners proposals for a sectoral truce in the Black Sea and on energy infrastructure and was waiting for Russia’s reply. He said the package covers a halt to strikes on energy sites and safe passage for shipping.

Sybiha also put a number on the map dispute. Ukraine controls about 20% of Donbas, he said, not the 10% Putin has claimed, and he had passed that data to Rubio. He said a direct meeting between Zelensky and Putin “could truly accelerate the end of the war.”

Ukraine’s air force said Russia launched 162 drones and a ballistic missile at Ukraine the night before the talks opened. Sybiha said he had asked Rubio to speed up deliveries of interceptor missiles.

The first marker is a date and a number for the prisoner exchange. The second is any Russian reply to the Black Sea and energy truce. The third is a joint statement on territory after Wednesday’s session. The fourth is a name for Europe’s negotiator before the Berlin summit on 19 November.

If the exchange is announced and the truce offer goes unanswered, this round will end as February’s did, with prisoners home and the front unchanged.