Egypt’s Rafale Buildup Puts Ethiopia Within Reach

Egypt became the Rafale’s first export customer in 2015 with an order for 24 jets. In 2021 it ordered 30 more, worth about $3.75 billion, and EDR Magazine reports that eight of that second batch have been delivered, with the rest due over the next two years. A third order of 24 would bring the total to 78.

Cairo could have bought a hundred cheaper aircraft of other types. It wants one modern fleet at one standard, with the Meteor beyond-visual-range missile, whose reach exceeds 150 kilometres, and the MICA missile. The new jets would come in the F4 standard, which France builds for its own nuclear-capable squadrons; Egypt would receive them without that capability. A force of 78 Rafales could fight a prolonged air war with one of the best fighters in the world. That would put Egypt in a different league.

The deal also replaces an ageing fleet. Egypt still flies more than 200 F-16s, which Washington has been reluctant to upgrade. Cairo can afford the switch. The Central Bank of Egypt reported record net international reserves of $57.35 billion in September, the ninth monthly rise in a row.

Israel would like the sale cancelled outright. It has voiced concern about Egypt’s long-range air-to-air missiles before. According to Tactical Report, the regional intelligence newsletter, Israel has now inserted itself into the negotiation. France has started raising doubts about some capabilities, such as possible Meteor delays, after everything had been agreed, and the Egyptians “took one step forward and one step back”. No contract has been signed.

Israel has little leverage, though. With American fighters, Washington can block or slow a sale through its export controls, and that is how Israel has protected its qualitative edge for decades. Paris learned this the hard way when US rules held up the SCALP cruise missile for Egypt’s first batch. Since then France has removed the US-controlled components that once went into the Rafale and its weapons, precisely so it can sell the aircraft freely. Without a US veto, the only thing left to Israel is pressure on Paris. Cairo should not let that pressure delay a deal that serves its own security.

Reports this week say Egypt is also acquiring four aerial refuelling tankers. On its own, a Rafale can return from most missions. Tankers matter because they let an air force stay in the fight. Saudi Arabia shows why. Yemen sits on its border, yet Saudi jets still refuel in the air so they can stay over Yemeni airspace instead of flying home for fuel.

The Egyptian Air Force has been rehearsing the capability. Egyptian MiG-29Ms have been shown buddy-refuelling Rafales, and during the Eagles of Civilization 2026 drills in August, a Chinese Y-20 tanker refuelled an Egyptian Rafale in mid-air.

Put Rafales and tankers together and the destination is obvious. The distance between Egypt and Ethiopia is roughly 1,500 kilometres. A fleet of 78 Rafales with its own tankers can strike targets in Ethiopia and keep doing so.

Ethiopia is fighting on several fronts at once. In September, seven armed groups, including the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and former enemies of the TPLF, formed an alliance to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Fighting resumed on September 23, effectively ending the 2022 Pretoria ceasefire. Federal forces entered Mekelle, the Tigrayan capital, after the TPLF pulled out without a fight. The prize may prove a trap: Eritrea had treated Mekelle as a red line, because an Ethiopian army there would be one step from Eritrea itself. Days later Eritrean troops crossed into Tigray. Reuters witnesses saw them in Adigrat, and a pro-government commander reported them in Idaga Hamus, about 45 kilometres inside Ethiopia. Ethiopian officials put their number at up to 8,000. Eritrea moved in response to Ethiopia’s advance on Mekelle; it did not start this round.

Abiy, meanwhile, keeps escalating. Sworn in for a new five-year term on October 5, he told parliament that Ethiopia must have an outlet to the sea. In Eritrea, that is read as a threat to the port of Assab. A leader facing a civil war and a foreign army inside his borders would normally de-escalate. Abiy pledges new wars instead.

His government also blames Egypt for everything. Ethiopia’s army chief accused Egypt, Eritrea and Sudan of arming the rebels without producing evidence. Ethiopian accounts circulated a photo of a white man selling weapons as proof of an Egyptian hand. When Addis Ababa expelled ten Eritrean diplomats, it also expelled an Egyptian diplomat, and Cairo answered in kind. On October 4, Sisi hosted the leaders of Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia at the El Alamein summit, which insisted on the “no harm” principle for the Nile and rejected any recognition of Somaliland.

The war is also reaching Sudan. Reuters reported earlier this year that Ethiopia hosted a camp where thousands of fighters linked to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) were trained. Now that Ethiopia needs those fighters at home, the RSF is weakening and Sudan’s army is advancing. The Ethiopian war will not end quickly.

Egypt does not need to exploit Ethiopia’s crisis. It should offer Abiy a deal: sign a binding agreement on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, in Cairo and in public, and Egypt will use its influence to mediate with Eritrea and the armed groups. Ethiopia inaugurated the dam in September 2025 without any agreement with Egypt or Sudan, and it has long said it wants only non-binding guidelines. A binding agreement would cost Ethiopia nothing. It only commits Ethiopia not to harm Egypt’s water share, which Abiy already swore in Cairo he would not do. If he refuses, he can fight seven armed groups and a foreign army on his own soil. We set out that offer in full in Egypt’s final offer to Abiy.

Abiy can expect little help from Israel, which recognised Somaliland in December 2025 and is building a presence there. Israel’s resources are committed to Iran, and in Ethiopia it backs whoever is winning. Only if the Ethiopian army moves into Eritrea, serving Israel’s own Red Sea strategy, would Abiy get the weapons he wants.