Lavrov Carries a Gulf Security Plan From Manama to Tehran as Russia Pitches Itself as Mediator

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov landed in Tehran on Monday, 19 October, a day after he sat across from the six Gulf Cooperation Council states in Manama and told them Moscow wanted to stop the Iran war from widening. It is his first visit to Iran since the war began, and he came straight from a meeting where the Gulf states asked Russia to press Iran, not to defend it.

The same weekend, Donald Trump wrote that the United States would “soon finish the job” in Iran, and Abbas Araghchi answered that Tehran had “unfinished jobs too”. What Lavrov said in Tehran is not yet public, so this piece sets out what each side said before he arrived.

In Manama on 18 October Lavrov offered the Gulf states a plan for direct dialogue. In Tehran the next day his stated agenda was the Persian Gulf situation and “ways to resolve the acute international crisis”.

The Gulf states asked Russia for something specific: pressure on Tehran to stop attacks. Russia’s foreign ministry calls the war “unlawful aggression of the US and Israel against Iran”.

Trump has said Russia does “very little, if anything” for Iran. Analysts cited by the Soufan Center say Russian help has been larger than that.

The ninth round of the Russia and GCC strategic dialogue met in Manama. The National reported that GCC Secretary General Jasem Al Budaiwi asked Moscow to “play an active role in pressing Tehran” to follow UN resolutions and stop attacks. He said the Gulf states had faced more than 7,000 ballistic missiles and drones since 28 February, hitting airports, ports, power stations and desalination plants.

Budaiwi also condemned the 10 October Houthi attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, which killed 12 people and injured more than 300, according to the same report.

Lavrov answered with a Russian security concept. “Our concept is specifically designed to foster conditions for direct dialogue among the Gulf’s coastal states,” he said, according to The National. The National said it allows for support from the Arab League, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and the permanent members of the UN Security Council. The paper quoted him calling the crisis the result of an “unprovoked act of aggression” by the United States and Israel.

After the talks he told reporters, in remarks carried by TASS, “We believe that the memorandum still contains everything necessary to shift the situation.” He added: “It is necessary to eliminate the root causes of what is happening in and around the Strait of Hormuz.”

On Monday, The National quoted Lavrov as saying: “We all believe that it is important for all the Gulf states to have their own word in how to resolve this strategic crisis.” He also said: “We stand for absolute respect for agreements reached so far.”

Lavrov described Russia’s efforts as “aimed at preventing the return of a large-scale war,” according to AFP’s report in Arab News. The Russian foreign ministry said the Tehran talks would address “ways to resolve the acute international crisis triggered by the unlawful aggression of the US and Israel against Iran.” The Moscow Times reported that the ministry called the talks “confidential and thorough” and added energy, transport and economic projects to the agenda.

AFP reported that Lavrov was to meet President Masoud Pezeshkian, then Araghchi, and that Putin told Pezeshkian earlier this month that Russia was ready to help with mediation, AFP reported.

Trump, on Truth Social on 18 October, wrote that unless Tehran changes course quickly, “we will soon finish the job,” in a post endorsing Benjamin Netanyahu, as JNS reported. Silent Dossier covered that endorsement in an earlier piece.

Araghchi replied on X: “Want to try your luck again? Be our guest. But be careful; we have unfinished jobs too.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in an interview with Breitbart reported by JNS, called Iran “the number one driver of instability and war and conflict” in the region.

Budaiwi asked Russia to press Iran. Lavrov’s answer was a structure for direct dialogue among the Gulf’s coastal states, with Iraq and Jordan included, according to The National. The Russian ministry’s own description of the war names Washington and Israel as the aggressors.

Trump has said Russia is doing “very little, if anything,” the Moscow Times reported. A 16 October Soufan Center IntelBrief cited reports of Russian targeting intelligence, missile resupply and shared missile technology. Nicole Grajewski of Sciences Po was quoted there saying Russian help was “instrumental to at least the early stages of” Iran’s campaign. The IntelBrief also reported that Putin sees the assistance as leverage for easing US sanctions.

Washington waived new sanctions on Russia this week, as the earlier Silent Dossier piece on the sanctions pause explained, and Putin has asked for a summit with Trump and Xi, covered in this piece.

The first marker is the readout from Tehran: whether the Russian and Iranian accounts both name the Islamabad memorandum, and whether Lavrov carries any message from Washington. None has been reported.

The second marker is whether any Gulf state publicly takes up the coastal dialogue concept. Budaiwi’s request was for pressure on Tehran.

The third is 27 October, when Israel votes, the election Trump’s post addressed. Lavrov says Russia’s aim is to prevent “the return of a large-scale war”, and the vote is eight days away.