Europe & Russia
Russia Ignores Trump’s Energy Ceasefire as Washington Turns on His Diesel Deal
Zelensky, Macron and Tusk say Russia is not observing Trump’s energy ceasefire, while senators of both parties challenge his Russian diesel licence.
In this article
Context
The energy ceasefire President Donald Trump announced on Sunday had no Russian signature by Monday evening. At the Warsaw Security Forum, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine supports the truce but “I have not heard approval of this proposal from the Russian side, and this looks strange,” according to NBC News. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted by Al Jazeera as saying that “both President Putin and officials at other levels have repeatedly stated we do not want a ceasefire.”
Two days before that, Trump had announced a US licence for Russian diesel. Senators from both parties have spent the weekend asking him to withdraw it. The two announcements now sit side by side. This piece follows the earlier Silent Dossier account of the ceasefire announcement and covers what was said since.
Key takeaways
Trump announced the energy ceasefire without a Russian confirmation, and Moscow has not supplied one. Zelensky reported new Russian strikes on Monday, and Emmanuel Macron and Donald Tusk said Moscow was not observing the truce. The diesel licence has drawn objections from Republican and Democratic senators and from the EU’s foreign policy chief. The ceasefire and the diesel deal now have to be read together.
What was said about the ceasefire
On Sunday morning Trump wrote on Truth Social: “Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine.” He added: “Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” NBC News carried both lines.
Zelensky had been on ABC’s “This Week” the same day. He said: “We are ready for energy ceasefire, not to attack energy, both sides.” On Monday he told the Warsaw forum by video link that Ukraine was “horribly surprised” by new Russian strikes, Al Jazeera reported. He alleged a strike on a Kharkiv power plant, and added: “If Russia does not agree to an energy ceasefire, we will respond.” Sergii Fedorenko, acting chief executive of the state gas company Naftogaz, wrote on Telegram that overnight attacks on its sites in the Kharkiv region “damaged critical equipment.”
Macron spoke to reporters at a Paris auto show. He said: “I have not noted, over the last 48 hours, any energy ceasefire coming from the Russian side.” At the same forum in Warsaw, Tusk said: “Russia is not interested in a ceasefire, de-escalation, or peace.”
The Kremlin’s own words were sparser. NBC News quoted Peskov saying: “contacts are ongoing. When we have anything to say on this topic, we’ll be sure to keep you informed.” Al Jazeera quoted him in blunter terms and reported that he also rejected Zelensky’s proposed 60-day truce for elections. NBC News also quoted Zelensky as saying Kyiv “didn’t know about it. We learned from the media.”
Analysis
What is the Russian diesel deal?
Trump announced the diesel arrangement on Friday 9 October after a phone call with Vladimir Putin, the Associated Press reported. The terms he posted: more than 300,000 tonnes immediately, 500,000 tonnes in November, a million tonnes after that and three million tonnes “within a short period of time.” The Treasury issued a temporary general licence. AP described it as the first easing of diesel sanctions beyond the usual 30 days since February 2022.
Trump framed it as a price measure. “Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority,” he wrote. Leaving the White House for a rally, he said: “I want to thank President Putin.” The Kremlin said Russia had “confirmed its readiness to supply oil and oil products to the American and global markets.” Alexander Novak told TASS that Russia was “immediately starting to lift restrictions on diesel exports ahead of schedule.” Russia had banned diesel exports in July.
Analysts quoted by AP doubted the price effect. Clayton Seigle of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said: “What does this do to prices? I think probably not much.” He also called it a “great benefit to Russia and to Putin.” Michael Lynch of the Energy Policy Research Foundation called it “kind of shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic.”
Analysis
How the two announcements collide
Zelensky reacted to the diesel deal on 9 October. In a statement relayed by the Ukrainian embassy in Washington he called it “a weak decision, unfortunately, a weak decision by strong partners.” In his online post: “It plays into Russia’s hands.”
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas wrote on X on Saturday, as Arab News reported: “Suspending sanctions on Russian diesel provides Moscow with more revenues to wage war.” She added: “This is not the time to ease pressure on Russia, and Europe won’t.” The German government, through spokesman Stefan Kornelius, said Berlin was keeping to its sanctions decisions against Russia, according to dpa.
The sharpest answers came from Congress, as the Kyiv Independent compiled. Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat, wrote: “Congress banned Russian energy imports in 2022. (The president) cannot simply ignore that law to buy diesel from Putin.” Seven members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, from both parties, said in a joint statement on Sunday that the decision “runs directly counter to that law.” Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski wrote: “A few weeks ago, Congress overwhelmingly passed legislation to increase sanctions and tariffs on Russia.” Representative Brian Fitzpatrick, a Republican, promised legislation that he said “will pass overwhelmingly.” Senator Richard Blumenthal said the deal “will lead to the slaughter of more innocents in Ukraine.”
The order of the dates matters. Trump issued the fuel licence on Friday. Trump announced a ceasefire on Sunday. By Monday, Zelensky was reporting strikes on energy sites, and Macron and Tusk said Moscow was not observing the truce. Shaheen and Senator Wicker wrote a letter asking for enforcement of the sanctions law before an 18 October deadline.
What to watch
Three markers will show which announcement carries weight. The first is whether Moscow confirms the ceasefire in its own words; Peskov has so far said only that contacts continue. The second is whether Ukrainian energy operators such as Naftogaz report further strikes after Monday. The third is whether the senators’ 18 October deadline produces any change to the Treasury licence.
At present the Kremlin has the licence and Kyiv has the strikes. On the Russian side, the ceasefire so far rests on Trump’s post.
Share this article
Follow Silent Dossier
New articles and corrections are posted on our official accounts.
Related
