Rubio Calls the Ukraine War a Strategic Stalemate, Zelensky Calls It Unwillingness and Peskov Says a Freeze Will Not Help

On Thursday morning Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said a temporary freeze of the war would not help. Hours later, Kathimerini’s interview with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was published, and he said that the war had become “a strategic stalemate” with no negotiated exit in sight. By midday Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was reported answering him from the town of Pryluky.

Silent Dossier covered the previous round, Moscow’s call for diplomats to leave Kyiv, on 5 October.

Rubio said a stalemate breaks only through a deal or through escalation, and that he sees no deal. Zelensky rejected the word “dead end” and called it unwillingness. Peskov, speaking earlier, said a freeze will not help. A Putin and Trump call is being arranged.

Peskov spoke first, on Thursday morning. TASS, relayed by RBC-Ukraine, reported him saying: “A temporary freezing of the Ukrainian conflict will not help; the solution must be designed for future generations and guaranteed.” At the same briefing he confirmed that India has sent Moscow proposals and that Putin and Trump will speak. UNN reported him saying there were no delays “whatsoever” in arranging the call and that the time will be agreed. He added that Trump had not sent Putin a birthday telegram on 7 October.

Rubio’s remarks came in an interview with Kathimerini, reported by Ukrinform. “I think what it is now, unfortunately, is a strategic stalemate, which is a dangerous thing,” he said. “Strategic stalemates are only broken in one of two ways: a) through a negotiated settlement, or b) through escalation by one side or both that ends up spreading beyond the confines of the original conflict. Right now, there don’t seem to be prospects of a negotiated settlement.”

“The Russians have defined victory as the totality of Donetsk,” Rubio said, and for Ukraine that condition “is simply unacceptable”. He also pointed to the Black Sea: “Just yesterday, some ships were attacked in the Black Sea through a coordinated drone attack.” He said there were clear indications that Russia would use the winter to destroy what remains of Ukraine’s electric grid.

Zelensky replied while visiting Pryluky with Britain’s foreign minister Ed Miliband, a trip to mark the dead of a Russian missile strike, according to Ukrinform. He told the briefing that another strike had hit Kramatorsk during the visit, with a large number of dead. 1news.az, citing Ukrainian media, headlined his remarks as a reply to Rubio. He said: “Shut down its entire economy. Sew Russia’s mouth shut. Don’t feed them with your sales. Just impose sanctions on their weapons.” He added: “Where is the dead end here? What dead end? This is called unwillingness.”

The Zelensky quotations are 1news.az’s English rendering of remarks made in Ukrainian.

Rubio says the stalemate ends by a deal or by escalation, and he mentioned the Black Sea attack and a winter campaign against the grid. Peskov says a freeze solves nothing and wants guarantees “for future generations”. Zelensky says pressure would break the deadlock: in the remarks 1news.az carried, he said Putin “will lose everything” within “three, two months” if the West tightened sanctions and helped protect Ukraine’s sky.

Zelensky also pointed to Iran. “Open Starlink for Ukraine. You did open it when you were responding to Iran,” he said. “When you need it, it works.”

Mykola Bielieskov, a research fellow at Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, wrote for the Atlantic Council on 6 October that Russia launched about 1,500 jet drones in July, 2,850 in August and roughly 3,200 in September, citing Ukrainian officials. He wrote that “Putin clearly has no intention of ending his invasion and has chosen escalation over possible peace negotiations.”

Rubio called Russia’s goal of all of Donetsk a condition Ukraine cannot accept. In the reports reviewed, Peskov did not say whether Russia had dropped it.

The Putin and Trump call comes first. Peskov said the time will be agreed, and the readouts will show which subject leads.

India’s proposal comes second. Peskov acknowledged receiving it. RBC-Ukraine reported that Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar presented a plan to Zelensky’s team in Kyiv.

The winter campaign comes third. Rubio said there were clear indications that Russia would use the winter to destroy what remains of the grid. His test for the stalemate is a deal or escalation. Zelensky’s is pressure on Moscow.