Trump’s Diesel Deal Explained: Axios, Zelensky and London Reply

On Saturday 10 October, a day after Donald Trump announced that Russia would put diesel on world markets, the reasons for the deal came into view. Axios, citing a US official, reported that Trump struck it after Volodymyr Zelensky “ignored half a dozen U.S. requests to stop attacking Russian oil refineries.” Zelensky answered in two Telegram posts. The UK government answered in a statement of its own.

This piece follows our report on the announcement and Zelensky’s “smokescreen” remark. It covers only what was said since.

Axios reports that the diesel deal was a reaction to Kyiv’s refusal to stop hitting Russian refineries. A Ukrainian official told Axios that US envoys raised the possible loss of American intelligence. Zelensky tied the deal to a missile attack on Kyiv and asked Washington and Europe for “strong signals.” London said it would keep sanctioning Russia and described the diesel decision only in its background note.

Ukrinform summarised the Axios report on the morning of 10 October. Axios’s source, a US official, said that “President Trump decided to make a diesel fuel deal with Russia after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ignored half a dozen U.S. requests to stop attacking Russian oil refineries.”

According to the same report, Zelensky told Trump and his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner that Ukraine would halt the refinery strikes if Russia stopped attacking Ukrainian power plants. Trump wanted Ukraine to stop first, the US official said, because the strikes were pushing up fuel prices in the United States.

The envoys delivered the news in Miami. During eight hours of talks on Friday, Axios reported, they told the Ukrainian delegation that Trump planned to speak with Vladimir Putin and lift sanctions on Russian diesel exports. A Ukrainian official told Axios the envoys “threatened that Trump could cut off Ukraine from U.S. intelligence if it continued to ignore his requests.” A US official gave Axios a different account: the envoys stressed that the United States was a reliable supplier of ammunition and intelligence, and that Kyiv should therefore avoid actions that hurt American consumers.

The same US official described what Washington wants from Moscow. “Putin is hitting [Ukraine] hard but we think he is open to a discussion on ending the war,” the official said. Witkoff and Kushner were considering a trip to Moscow and Kyiv next week, according to Axios.

Zelensky told Axios after the announcement that the deal was “not fair and not honest.” On Saturday he wrote on Telegram, in Ukrainian, that the Russian permission to sell oil products “was best heard in Kyiv” when ballistic missiles followed a wave of jet-powered Shahed drones against energy sites. The translation is ours. He added that every extra billion dollars of export earnings would go to critical components, weapons equipment, more Shaheds and missiles, and extra mercenaries for the front.

He then described the signal as he read it: “Yesterday, unfortunately, there were quite different signals for Russia, signals that it is supposedly possible to keep attacking. This must be corrected.” What he wants instead is “strong signals from the United States, from Europe, from other partners.”

In a second post he reported a call with Finnish President Alexander Stubb about a package for Ukraine’s air defence, with ammunition for F-16 fighters due in the coming days. The two also discussed what Zelensky called a new challenge, extra Russian profit from exporting oil products. “We are preparing meetings and coordinating steps,” he wrote.

The UK government spoke through a spokesperson, in a statement published on 10 October under the title “UK government response to agreement between US and Russia: 9 October.” It said: “We will also maintain pressure on Russia through the toughest sanctions regime ever imposed by the UK.” It also said: “Russia could end this war today.” The statement does not mention diesel. A background note says that international conflicts “can affect global energy markets, with implications for energy prices and the cost of living,” and that the UK “fully supports US-led efforts to secure a just and lasting peace in Ukraine.”

Set the dates side by side. Trump announced the deal on Friday. The Miami talks ran the same day. Axios says the envoys told Kyiv the plan in the room.

The Axios account and Zelensky’s account do not agree on how Kyiv learned of it. The US official says Ukraine was warned six times and ignored it. Zelensky told Axios the deal came as a surprise. Axios’s account has the envoys describing the plan in Miami on Friday. The reporting does not settle what Kyiv knew before then.

The offer on the table was a trade. Zelensky’s position, as Axios relays it, was refinery strikes for power plants. Trump’s, as the US official relays it, was that the strikes should stop first. Zelensky’s Saturday post describes a ballistic attack on Kyiv after the Shahed strikes.

London’s statement leaves out the question Zelensky put to partners. The UK says it backs “US-led efforts.” It also says Russia “has repeatedly rejected full and partial ceasefires while continuing attacks on Ukrainian civilians and energy.” It does not say whether it thinks the US waiver was a mistake.

Zelensky’s argument is that the diesel money pays for the attacks. His own list is components, weapons equipment, Shaheds, missiles and mercenaries.

The first marker is whether Witkoff and Kushner travel to Moscow and Kyiv next week, as the US official told Axios they were considering. The second is whether Kyiv keeps hitting refineries. Zelensky has offered a pause only in exchange for Russia leaving power plants alone.

The third is whether other European governments answer Zelensky’s call for “strong signals.” London’s reply so far restates its existing policy. The US Treasury issued its temporary general license for Russian diesel on Friday.