Will Ukraine Stop Hitting Russian Oil Refineries Soon?

Ukraine will stop hitting Russian oil refineries for a month if the United States supplies a month of Patriot missiles, President Volodymyr Zelensky told Fox News host Trey Yingst in an interview on 1 November. Donald Trump has demanded such a halt for weeks. Zelensky said Kyiv would “find money” to pay for the missiles.

The Kremlin spoke the next day on two other items on Washington’s list. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on 2 November that restarting Russian gas transit through Ukraine is impossible for now. He also said Russia expects Trump to keep pursuing a negotiated settlement after the US midterm elections on 3 November. Reports of his briefing carry no reply to the refinery offer.

Zelensky has turned a US demand into a trade: no refinery strikes for as long as Patriot interceptors keep arriving. Trump said the strikes push up the world oil price, while Zelensky said they answer Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy system. The State Department approved 500 PAC-3 interceptors on 30 October, but Zelensky said deliveries may begin only in a few years. Peskov said no on gas.

Trump set the terms on 15 October, in an interview with Newsmax. “If you tell me that Zelenskyy is again shooting at refineries, all he’s doing is making the world oil price higher,” he said. He called the strikes “a disgrace” and said “there’s plenty of other targets; they don’t have to hit.” The next day in Brussels, Zelensky told reporters that Kyiv was “done” with the energy truce Trump had announced, after Russia kept attacking Ukraine’s power grid.

On 30 October the US State Department said it had approved the sale of 500 PAC-3 Patriot interceptors to Ukraine for $2.1 billion, covered in Patriot Missiles for Ukraine: U.S. Approves $2.1B Sale. Zelensky said that is a substantial number that could form an effective defence this winter. He also warned that “deliveries may begin only in a few years.”

Against that delay he made his offer in the Fox interview. He said he had held several discussions with Trump and his aides on the refineries. “We said that if you want us not to attack Russia’s refineries, they have not to attack our energy system,” he said. Then he named the price: “If you need us not to attack for refiners one month, give me patriots for one month.”

Peskov told reporters on 2 November that plans to send Russian gas to Europe through Ukrainian pipelines again were impossible to implement at the moment. Transit through Ukraine ended on 1 January 2025, when the old contract expired, and the US idea of reviving it has been reported since mid October. Peskov added that Moscow regards the US midterms as an internal American matter.

Zelensky also addressed a meeting with Putin. He told a Turkish broadcaster on 1 November, a day after meeting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul, that he is ready to meet Vladimir Putin in Turkey. He said he would not hand over the Donbas region or recognise Crimea as Russian. Silent Dossier covered Moscow’s earlier line in what Trump and Moscow said about a Putin and Zelensky meeting.

The dates run in a short line. Trump said on 15 October that the strikes were a disgrace. The State Department announced the Patriot sale on 30 October. Zelensky offered the trade on 1 November and said Ukraine would pay.

Each leader names a different harm. Trump spoke of the world oil price and said Zelensky was more difficult to deal with than Putin. Zelensky said: “they have not to attack our energy system.” Reports of Peskov’s briefing on 2 November carry no reply to that condition.

Peskov did speak to Washington on gas and the midterms. On gas he said it was impossible for now. On the election he said the Kremlin expects Trump to continue seeking a negotiated settlement.

Three markers matter. Trump may reply to the Fox interview after the midterm vote on 3 November. Peskov may be asked about the refinery offer at his next briefing. Erdogan may announce a venue and a date for a Zelensky and Putin meeting. Until then Ukrainian refinery strikes continue, and Kyiv waits for Patriot deliveries.